The recap of our 2014 predictions with brief comments follows ratings based on my Blue Ribbon Evaluation Panel (my relatives) this year’s score sheet shows:
Missed it completely 2
Toss ups, your call 3
Half right 3
Generally, Americans will begin/continue to awaken to the totalitarian impulses of the Obama administration and Progressive thinking; IRS, NSA, Fast and Furious, regulation, crony capitalism (Corporatism) and the wholesale absence of direct accountability. POLLS WOULD ARGUE I’M CORRECT, IF ANYTHING I COULD HAVE BEEN MORE AGRESSIVE
GDP will improve slightly, 2.5% annually, but will remain insufficient to generate a significant impact on joblessness. Real unemployment will remain around 15%. The recent Federal Reserve ‘tapering’ will not continue based upon stagnant job creation. Underlying dynamics will support higher inflation. The Fed will do everything in their power to hold the line, and they will eventually fail. The underground economy will continue to grow. ESSENTIALLY CORRECT
ObamaCare will continue to collapse of its own weight, as predicted last year. The President to avoid admission of failure will have no choice but to continue to apply un-Constitutional delays and alterations to the law for purely political reasons with an eye to the 2014 mid terms. These tactics will become ever more obvious in intent with disapproval for ObamaCare hovering around 65% and remaining there. Calls for Republicans to, in essence, propose ‘fixes and alternatives’ will escalate. The odds that Republicans will, as is their pattern, foolishly take the bait are north of 50%. Any Republican proposal will simply provide a platform for Democratic criticism regardless of the nature of the proposals. The President, on the other hand, will use the debt ceiling debate to deflect attention away from ObamaCare. The rhetoric will be repetitive and will sound ever more hollow to the public in general. THE SLOW COLLAPSE CONTINUES, PREMIUMS UP, DEDUCTABLES UP, CANCELLATIONS CONTINUE, SENATOR SCHUMER NOW BELIEVES IT WAS A MISTAKE AND THE SUPREMES COULD DELIVER THE DEATH KNEL. GALLUP 63% DISAPPROVE, USA TODAY 55% DISAPPROVE, CBS 57% OPPOSE.
The Keystone Pipeline will not be approved by the administration. SELF EVIDENT.
Democrats in the Senate will begin to push back against Leader Harry Reid sensing personal opportunity in that opposition. They will make the calculation that Leader Reid has become a liability, especially in the context of the 2014 mid-term elections. Republicans will gain seats but not achieve a majority in the Senate. In the House Republicans will lose seats but maintain the majority. In the context of the 2016 elections a Democrat Senate may, in fact, end up being a positive for Republicans. So long as Republicans disagree on unifying principals within the party they will not be able to present themselves to the public in a cohesive fashion. The actual model that will limit Republican gains will be the Virginia model; phantom Democratic money funding ‘stealth’ Libertarian candidates intended to split the Conservative/Republican vote. VERY, VERY HAPPY TO BE VERY WRONG ON SENATE BALANCE OF POWER, REPUBLICANS RAN AGAINST OBAMA. DEMS FAILED TO GET THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES UP AND RUNNING GENERALLY. CORRECT ON HARRY REID, CALL THIS ONE A MISS
Based on the Year End Presidential press conference we might be lead to believe that the MSM will actually begin to do their job. Don’t believe it, they are reacting to short term impulses and will return to a posture that either justifies Presidential behavior or fails to report and objectively analyze critical issues until and unless a continued slide in Presidential approval ratings demands it. Were we to chart Presidential approval and MSM ‘energy’ the charts will look reciprocal. CORRECT! MINIMAL REPORTING ON BENGHAZI, IRS AND NSA. AS THE YEAR ENDS BASED ON OBAMA EXECUTIVE ACTIONS THE MSM IS GETTING BACK ON THE BANDWAGON.
The effort by the administration to transition the American Military from a collection of warriors to a collection of politically correct drones will accelerate. A key Military leader will resign in protest, expose the effort and create a domestic crisis for the administration. I could be dreaming, but I sense increasing pent up frustration with the administration within the military. THE DREAM DID NOT HAPPEN, NO RESIGNATIONS IN PROTEST BUT THE MILITARY IN GENERAL IS REJECTING THE PRESIDENT LATEST POLL BY MILITARY TIMES SHOWS 15% APPROVAL OF THE PRESIDENT
Conservatives will take a cue from Rand Paul and realize that they have to go to and engage the opposition (minorities, university liberals and left leaning independents) with the logic of Conservative thinking. Conservatives must engage beyond the warm embrace of Conservative orthodoxy if they want to win. Residence in the echo chamber will not work and the context of unique opportunity presents itself. DID NOT HAPPEN TO ANY GREAT EXTENT, MAY STILL OCCUR IN 2015
Hillary will wait on the trends for the 2014 mid-terms before officially ‘jumping in’. She will continue to raise money and establish her network. She realizes that, as a candidate, there is little difference between her and an increasingly rejected President Obama. That theme will form the center point of a Republican campaign against her. There is significant history and evidence that Hillary will represent “more of the same” and Republicans will aggressively point it out. She, on the other hand, will likely rely on the competence argument; the timing of that argument will depend on where Obama’s approvals stand. Bill will encourage her to ‘step out’ sooner as opposed to later. CALL THIS ONE FOR YOURSELVES!
Obama approval will remain in the neighborhood of 40% for the first third of the year, it will decline to an average of 37% from there on as ObamaCare continues to collapse and millions more policies are cancelled. THREE POLLS HAVE OBAMA IN THE 30’S. TOSS UP, YOUR CALL!
The law suits pending regarding the un-Constitutional application of Presidential powers will fail legally but gain traction with the public in general, elevating the issue and creating pressure on both the political and judicial infrastructure. PENDING.
The Tea Party will come to realize that the initial energy of their movement has been somewhat mitigated politically. They will realize that some level of incremental gains will be required to set the stage for dramatic movement toward Conservative goals. TOSS UP, YOUR CALL.
The Iranian nuclear Red Line will be crossed and Israel will move against the regime, they will do so in concert with Saudi Arabia and, possibly, the Gulf States; the enemy of my enemy! In advance of an actual strike there will be a series of ‘accidents’ within the Iranian nuclear infrastructure; accelerating ‘accidents’ will be the clue that a serious strike is in the offing. THE ‘ACCIDENTS’ CONTINUE AND THE RED LINE COULD BE CROSSED WITHIN MONTHS IF NOT WEEKS. COUNT THIS ONE AS A MISS.
Saudi Arabia will look for a new network of alliances based on their rejection of American leadership and policy. American influence in the region will continue to decline. There will be no Kerry peace deal with the Palestinians. ABSOULTLY CORRECT THE SAUDI’S ARE PISSED OFF.
Jihadists will, on an ongoing basis, control ever more territory in Syria and the civil war will continue with Jihadists taking the upper hand. Assad will be gone by the end of the year short of direct Russian military involvement. The Russians will position themselves with the Jihadists in advance of Assad moving on should they decide not to directly intervene; they will do whatever is necessary to maintain their warm water port in Syria. PARTIALLY CORRECT, JIHADISTS HAVE GAINED GROUND (READ ISIS) HOWEVER ASSAD IS STILL THERE THANKS TO THE RUSSIANS AND THANKS TO US.
The Pogrom against Christians in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia will continue as the ‘International Community’ has no interest in condemning it, let alone attempting to stop it. The absence of American leadership will result in thousands of unnecessary deaths as the borders of Islamic control expand by way of the murder of innocents. 100% CORRECT.
China will continue to create conflict most especially in the South China Sea. Based on the past four years counties in the region will see the West in general and America specifically as feckless and untrustworthy. China will also be very active related to energy contracts and investments in the 3rd world. CORRECT.
Vlad Putin will accelerate his efforts to reconstruct the Soviet Union. Dominos will fall one by one based on Russia’s control of energy supplies, military expansion and the failure of the West to stand up to Putin’s transparent intentions. A reprise of the Cold War could result. CORRECT; CRIMEA, UKRAINE.