Political Physics

The 2014 mid-term elections are about the physics of politics. Before you can change the direction of a thing in motion it must first accomplish that moment where it stops in advance of moving in the other direction.

The mid-term will not send President Obama home. It will not limit his ability to veto legislation intended to deconstruct his limited legislative ‘victories’. It will not result in impeachment. But it can stop any further momentum of the Obama Presidency. This election can slow the momentum of the Progressive agenda. The first2014 salvo has been fired in the Florida 13th, where Democrats should have won but did not. That salvo occurs in the context of polling that should be sending Democrats into freak out mode.

As Democrats absorb not only the numbers nationally, but the manner in which they are solidifying, their leadership is still banging the drum of how wonderful ObamaCare is and that the only mistake they made was not being even more aggressive. Democrats are aware that the numbers in key Senate races are weak for their guys and gals and the biggest reason for it is blind allegiance to ObamaCare. Incumbent Democratic Senators are either neck and neck with potential opponents or well below where you would expect the numbers for an incumbent to be. Statistically incumbents have trouble winning over new voters and late voting trends tend to favor the challenger.

2014 is more than a mid-term capable of changing the nature of the Senate. This election could establish a baseline for Republican leadership and set the tone for the 2016 Presidential election. But, first Republicans have to win, so far the inability to focus on a limited set of messages that does not generate inter-party war drums remains a glaring weakness. That is especially the case when the public is telling us over and over again; it’s the economy, jobs, spending, debt, regulation and a way out of ObamaCare.

Tensions between Conservative and Establishment Republicans are tangible. What remains to be seen is whether those tensions are put aside in the interest of gaining majorities in both houses. Republicans and Conservatives must find points of consistent approach and messaging. Governor Christy drew our attention to the obvious; you can’t govern if you don’t win. You can’t change the political physics of momentum if you don’t win.
Trey Gowdy is leading by example and has perhaps identified the formula; he has deconstructed this President using no more than the President’s own words. The hypocrisy of the answers to his rhetorical questions illuminates the weakness in the Democratic position.

Could we all agree on that as a part of the messaging strategy?? Can we all agree to attack ObamaCare and its supporters and the Obama economic program? Can we all highlight the use of regulation by this administration? Can we all focus on what the Democratic candidates have actually done and said? Let’s keep this simple! Did or did not support the stimulus, did or did not support ObamaCare, did or did not reduce spending, did or did not hold the President to account when he exceeded his Constitutional powers? It’s all in the questions. Can we all talk about market based solutions, can we all talk about the fact that private sector stimulus works and there is up to $3 Trillion in private money out there that could be brought home. Can we deliver the simple message that if you think things are going well, (about 30% of you do) you should deliver the Senate to Democratic hands. If you think we’re heading in the wrong direction there is only one thing to do.

We are well reminded that a Republican majority in the Senate in 2012 was a possibility. We are well reminded that Harry Reid could have been sent home for good. We should be reminded that the Progressive momentum of political physics could have been halted in 2012. We didn’t do it, we didn’t win!

Personally I believe that Conservative solutions are the only viable pathway out of the morass we find ourselves in. The reality is that those solutions will face the veto pen of a Progressive President. 2014, represents the potential of a Republican controlled Congress with the power to expose Progressive solutions for what they are and tie Ms. Clinton to those solutions.

Intransigent ideology will do more harm than good. It has taken some time to evolve away from Conservative solutions; it will take some time to evolve back toward them. But that evolution cannot happen if Conservative solutions are viewed as the enemy within the ranks of Republicans and vice versa. Full tilt internecine warfare is not and will not be a winning strategy.

2014 stands the potential to halt the momentum; it will take 2016 to definitively set the political physics off in a new direction.