There Will Be War

Mark this as the day when American credibility and influence reached its post WWII low.

The ‘deal’ with Iran does not expose secret sites, does not inhibit the intercontinental ballistic missile program, does not stop the weaponization process and will not in any real sense limit uranium or plutonium enrichment; near as I can tell plutonium was not even mentioned in the deal. The deal calls for Iran to hold to 5% enrichment that we now say we will live with. The Iranians ‘promise’ to do ‘something’ with the already existing 20% enriched uranium to make it harder to continue with the enrichment. No shut down of centrifuges. No concessions regarding the threats of genocide against Israel, no aggressive inspection regime; no trust, but verify.

Iran has declared victory; they are correct. They correctly claim that their legitimacy as a nuclear power has been recognized. Iran gets some relief from sanctions with the lowest estimate of impact being seven billion. Statements from Iranian leadership remain confrontational. But, but “we’ll revisit it in six months” says Secretary Kerry. You may be assured that in six months it will be nearly impossible to reconstruct a broad sanctions regime that took nearly a decade to get to in the first place. Six months is plenty of time for Iran to do as it will. The opportunity to deliver the message that the program, in its entirety, is unacceptable has now passed. Iran will, on the back, of this deal, be positioned to execute the final stages of their program.

Saudi Arabia has made common cause with the Israelis declaring they will do what they have to do to deal with Iran and protect themselves, this concept of addressing a threat is well entrenched in International Law. Saudi leadership has declared that they will no longer engage in ‘reactive’ foreign policy; meaning that confidence in the U.S. under President Obama is nil. That means the entire strategic balance in the Middle East has changed. Rampant Shia Muslims are more of a threat to the Kingdom than Israeli Jews. Show me someone who predicted that would happen in a rational world!

A rational world? Valeria Jarrett absent any foreign policy or defense experience has been conducting secret meetings with the Iranians for a year; her only obvious qualification being that she was born there. If this deal is the result of her efforts she was clearly ‘sensitive’ to Iranian positions. Israel and the Saudis were not read into Ms. Jarrett’s meetings; amateur move.

The U.S. and its P5+1 allies have taken a Munich like decision to empower a radical, theocratic, repressive regime intent on Armageddon and regional dominance. This is the regime that a few years ago thanked the European negotiators for being so feckless as to allow them to buy the time they needed to progress with their nuclear program as did the current Iranian prime minister.

This particular exercise in hope and change will result in tragedy. Mark these days as the days you can point a finger to in the future as being the days when war was guaranteed.

These are the days when the U.S. abandoned Israel, Saudi Arabia and the prospect for if not peace some manner of stability in the ever more volatile Middle East. These are the days when the quietly but long held liberal view of Israel and its importance was finally exposed; screw them!

Israel, in concert with Saudi Arabia will strike Iran. There will be no U.S. support as the Obama strategy was not to keep Iran under control but to inhibit Israel from acting in its own defense. This ‘deal’ proves it. There will be war!