The immediately meaningful red line in the Middle East is the Iranian nuclear program. Iran has, so far, carefully managed the enrichment process to, essentially, stay under the Israeli red line. Israel’s public statements of late represent their analysis that the red line is about to be crossed. It is highly likely that within the next two months we will be glued to news coverage of the Israeli strike on Iran. Israel’s red lines are meaningful; Iran knows that!
Over the years it is clear that Israel maintained a significant intelligence and operational capacity in Iran. Over the years, as well, the shadow of appeasement has fallen over the Iranian nuclear issue. It is also clear that the Obama administration will not support Israel militarily. The Middle East is about to get a lot more complicated, and dangerous.
Despite American policy statements to the contrary the policy analysis that Iran with a bomb could be more easily contained than Iran in advance of getting the bomb? The analysis considered the risks to the West should an effort be undertaken to eliminate or cripple the program. This idea has floated for three years, beginning in………….wait for it…………European elitist circles. No lesser a publication than ‘Foreign Policy’ magazine published articles supporting that point of view. (Cancelled my subscription after that)
The logic of the analysis is tortured at best; tortured, even though the analysis ignores the key factors and capabilities that the Iranian regime has available. It is tortured absent an honest appraisal of Iranian intentions. The analysis of post bomb containment is the child of a politically correct ideology and therefore must ignore key factors or collapse of its own weight. The analysis must, no doubt, seem ever so sophisticated in the salons of Paris and Brussels but cannot explain away key factors. The Iranians must love that analysis. It is fatally flawed.
There have been ten years of negotiations with Iran. There has been no containment over that period of time. The nuclear program has remained in place, expanded and is now mere weeks from the point where the enrichment process can accelerate to weapons grade material. On a parallel track to the enrichment program is clear evidence of weaponization and an aggressive effort to obtain missile technology capable of delivering a weapon. There has been no containment! The absence of containment up till now is absent from an analysis that opines containment will be a reality after the reality of an Iranian nuclear weapon.
The elite analysis refuses to factor the impact of religious extremism which, within the ruling class in Iran, has accelerated and is now nearly endemic. This extremism looks to facilitate the rise of the 12th Imam, which must be preceded with chaos. As the West, especially Europe, slipped away from religion as a centerpiece of life, the Middle East has become more religiously fanatic; the clash of civilizations predicted by Samuel Huntington. Iranian extremism is apocalyptic as its core.
The elite analysis makes no allowance for the predictable effort that once the red line is crossed the ability to manufacture ever smaller weapons will come to reality quickly.
The elite analysis refuses to consider the presence of the Iranian supported terror infrastructure. To dismiss this factor you have to convince yourself that there is not one single Sayyid (suicide bomber) in Gaza or the West Bank willing to detonate a nuke on the Israeli border. You must convince yourself that transshipment by way of Iranian ally Syria is impossible. You have to convince yourself that Shia Western Iraq will not facilitate Shia Iranian designs!
The Iranian redline will soon be crossed. Israel will strike. Saudi Arabia will, secretly, allow Israeli over flights. The U.S. will claim that negotiations were going fine. The abandonment of ally Israel in the interest of appeasement in the Muslim World will sink U.S. credibility everywhere. We are, based on ‘negotiations’ now on the verge of the worst of all bad options.
U.S. refusal to participate in a strike will not matter overmuch n the Muslim World. The fact that U.S. weapons are in use will, in the Muslim mind, be nearly as damning as actual participation.