Here We Are

The polls and pundits don’t agree. You can make a valid case for whichever way your predilection falls. Objectivists call it a tossup one day out.

My sense is that in voting booths, in the privacy of mind, the President will be rejected.

It is hard to see how undecided voters, it they are undecided will, in the majority, decide for the President. We have had four years to judge.

Evangelicals could win Ohio for Romney, they’ve been quiet of late but they are still out there and vote when motivated, I believe the President has motivated them. Virginia is too close to call but I’m in Virginia and the enthusiasm seems tilted to Gov. Romney. Western Pennsylvania will be hit hard by a second Obama administration with coal and frocking in the center of the target.

In Wisconsin Republicans won the Governorship and then defended it against a recall. The polls in that recall election were dramatically wrong. Florida is likely a Romney win.

Where ads are running for the President it is still: the war on women, Bain Capital and ‘let’s have a talk around the kitchen table’. It’s difficult to see how these themes, will impact undecided voters. At this point folks are tuning out the ads, by and large.

The President has been able to push the fiscal cliff, Benghazi and new regulation beyond Election Day. Sandy helped erase Romney from the picture for three days. The ‘final arguments’ may make a difference. The Romney approach has been to go large and optimistic. The Romney argument seems, in large measure, aimed at the middle. The President appears to still be talking to his base. The President is still trying to define Romney; Romney is focused on the record. Both appear confident but Romney has been the one to stay on script. (Watched speeches all weekend long)

I predict an Electoral College win for Romney that will approach or exceed 300. This will be accomplished by a spate of narrow victories in the battleground states. Win by 10 or win by 1, a win is a win. In many cases there are only two to four percent that may truly be undecided on Election Day. The opportunity for a landslide of narrow victories is there and, yes, it could go either way. I’m down to my instinct; my instinct says President Romney.