Some time ago, based on repetitive postings and warnings related to Iran, one of our readers wanted to know why I was ‘fixated’ on the issue. This is why! Predictions for 2011 on this site projected that Iran would cross the nuclear red line in 2011; it appears to be coming to potentially horrific fruition. This based, finally, on an aggressive, comprehensive and compelling analysis by the post El Baradei IAEA.
The IAEA had been slow to face and recalcitrant to admit the fact that Iran never had any intentions of negotiating away their nuclear weapons program. Mohamed El Baradei during his term at IAEA essentially followed the European path characterized by six years of failed negotiations and soft inspection regimes. Those failures provided Iran with the time necessary to set the nuclear infrastructure in place. Two American Presidents hoped for the best, applied covert methods but failed to prepare for the worse. The result is a megalomaniacal, theocratic, fascist sponsor of worldwide terror that may soon have a nuclear weapon and surrogates willing to deliver it.
As the nuclear red line approaches, new reports surface of ‘mini’ nuclear weapons components being developed by Iran; there are no new ideas on how to contain a country that has no intention of being contained. Russia and China protecting Iran from effective sanctions, are not stepping up the consequences of their support. China, in fact, winked and nodded as North Korea assisted Iran and later on appeared at the site of Syria’s nuclear facility. Russia, with significant financial interests in the Iranian nuclear program, has proven themselves nothing short of whorish in their pursuit of commercial leverage.
More critical than a culpable Sino-Russian policy in favor of Iran is the lack of will in the West. The New York Times is the perfect demonstration of a failed policy of appeasement. Today, the NYT argues that more sanctions probably won’t work and a military strike would be disastrous. They, of course, fail to highlight the fact that generalized appeasement and political blindness delivered us to the point where, they at least, in their wisdom, don’t see a way out.
You can’t get Iran to behave by taking their allowance away and spanking is out of the question.
There are options. Progressive military actions that are proportional and minimize civilian casualties combined with an aggressive communications campaign would punish Iran and put a stop to the momentum of appeasement in place for the prior eight years. As long as appeasement is the actualized or perceived policy of the West nothing will change in Iran.
For starters military action against minor league military facilities along the Gulf that Iran has promised to use to attack shipping in the Gulf in the event of a military action by the West. Eliminate the ability for Iran to attack shipping as step one, again combined with an aggressive communications policy directly to the Iranian people. It won’t cripple Iran but a new message will be delivered and that particular pawn comes off the game board.
If nothing changes selective cruise missile strikes against Revolutionary Guard facilities could be next; again, military targeting with minimal chances of civilian casualties. The point being that a series of progressively more serious strikes against military targets with a clear message as to what we will do and why will change the momentum.
For two decades Iran has, essentially, had its way with the West. It will continue to depend upon weak, hollow reactions until the reactions are not weak and hollow. ‘Friends’ of Iran will also receive a message, those friends being: Nicaragua, Venezuela, North Korea, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon and most importantly China and Russia.
Iran and its ‘friends’ are most assuredly confident that the U.S. and the West will do little more than the Grey Lady did today; fret about no options and prepare for a nuclear tipped Iran.
It’s really very simple and historically consistent; there is always a high price to pay for appeasement of evil. It has always been such, it will be again.