Does The Arab Spring Turn to Winter?

Portions of our media and political communities see the Middle East uprisings, the Arab Spring, through the same lens that has them decrying enhanced interrogation and moving heaven and earth to defend Gitmo detainees regardless of  history or intent. 

These are the folks applying one-dimensional thinking to the Middle East, assuming a Palestinian Israeli peace deal was all that need be accomplished.  These are the folks who glossed over American Islamic organizations with proven activities in support of al Qaeda and Jihadists of all stripes.  The same folks who paved the way for their credibility, temporary as that may become.  Ecstatic in the belief that willful blindness will deliver the inner peace associated with blissful ignorance.  Happy idiots?

There are two significant non-governmental organizations in the Middle East; al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood.  Both serve as umbrellas for a wide variety of sub-organizations.  Both maintain consistent goals if not tactics.  Both are patient, exceptionally good strategic thinkers and smarter than we are more often than not based in large measure on their willingness to be patient. 

The real question is; if those are the two organizations with organizational juice which way can we assume the politics is going?  In Egypt the Brotherhood will take as their own, sensitivities and demands of the uprising.  They will do so for as long as it takes to accomplish power.  They will then ask the real question; “look around you do you see justice?”  “Look at Iran, an Islamic Republic” what do you see?”  They will answer those rhetorical questions with a resounding NO and “look at the power of Iran they defeat the West at every turn, the power of Iran is the power of Islam!”  “Why?”  “Because they are an Islamic Republic”!  It will all come back to Islam and the Brotherhoods interpretation of Islam  

If the Arab Spring becomes a Brotherhood controlled exercise, winter will soon set in.  The Brotherhood already has two dozen members of Parliament who ran as “independents” as yet another Egyptian leader attempted to appease the movement.  It has not worked for 50 years and it did not work this time.   

In Syria the movement will be put down, for now!  However, as the song goes; “when you ain’t got nothing, you ain’t got nothing to lose”.  The last time a significant uprising occurred in Syria, the city of Hama essentially disappeared.  Hama was the Brotherhood’s stronghold in Syria at the time and the Syrian need to eliminate the Brotherhood is definition enough of the threat, as seen by an Arab government. Syria may need to create another Hama to stave off, for now, the threat to its power. 

In Bahrain Iranian religious and political influence (same thing actually) is rightly feared by both Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.  They as well will be put down, for now.  The socio-economic equation is different from Syria and may impact the eventual outcome in favor of the current Bahraini government. In Bahrain it’s not just an uprising it’s a geopolitical crisis from the Saudi point of view.  It should be from our point of view as well.

Saudi Arabia committed $74 billion in new social spending to quell the potential of uprising.  If there is one thing the Saudi’s know how to do is buy off folks.  They’ve done a wonderful job of it in our own State Department.

The Brotherhood was invited to President Obama’s Cairo speech.  Hamas violence passes without harsh comment in our main stream media.  Volumes of evidence expose the agendas of Islamic organizations in the U.S.  Experts tell us we must  ‘understand’ that the roots of the problem are social and economic and cultural absent, apparently, the knowledge that Islamic culture is to a large degree one of violence, empire and repression.  Yet we engage in what can only be labeled appeasement and intellectual dysfunction.

Despite the long desired death of UBL the real challenge is knowledge absent political correctness and relativism.  To see things the way they actually are and were historically.  That challenge has not been met and there is no intellectual SEAL Team Six to get that particular job done… unfortunately!