More Surrounded?

Europe has moved quickly to establish sanctions against Myanmar, (yea, yea I know, the Euros can’t find their own butts with two hands and a flash light on Iran) China just completed a pipeline deal with Myanmar, nearly simultaneous announcements.  Funny that. 

An unnamed Israeli source contends that the U.S. pressured Israel to release all Turkish detainees regardless of affiliation, actions or status.  The U.S., apparently, believes that the significant tilt by the Turks toward the Iranians will reverse itself and that Turkey will support U.N. sanctions against Iran.  Really?  Even in the face of all the evidence to the contrary?  Even considering Turkey was involved in the latest failed Iranian “fuel swap” misdirection “deal” that was never really a deal?

David Ignatius, who does some excellent work, has a suggestion for Israel that speaks with the voice of tens of millions.  To paraphrase; “Israel should give up more, soften their positions”.  Israel should ___________(fill in the blank).  No demands of Fatah or Hamas.  The fact is that when Israel gave ground, nothing fundamentally changed.  When Israel has taken aggressive actions nothing has fundamentally changed.  I stand self-corrected sometimes it got worse, for everyone!

Despite unanimous agreement that the South Korean Corvette ChanAn was sunk by a North Korean torpedo the Russians remain unconvinced.  Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin said the “true causes of the sinking must be established and then appropriate measures taken by the international community.”  Comrade, catch up!

An Iranian sanctions vote, scheduled for today will now be scheduled for June 21st.  The delay attributed to the flotilla incident.  That set of circumstances could be characterized as exceptionally convenient for Iran as Iran stretches for the nuclear red line.

Consider just a small set of issues from Iran’s recent nuclear past.

The first report of the renewed Iranian nuclear program came in August of 2002 from an Iranian dissident group.  This same group later smuggled out an Iranian lap top that contained a windfall of information related to the Iranian program.  These files, printed in Farsi, included war head designs, likely by way of A.Q. Khan.

Mumbai, 4 June, 2008 (AKI) – India sent a clear message to the world when it seized 1,150 kilograms of nuclear grade graphite in Mumbai that was destined for Iran, according to an Indian media report.

Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa of Bahrain, in 2007 “While they (Iran) don’t have the bomb yet, they are developing it, or the capability for it,” he said – the first time one of Iran’s Gulf neighbors effectively has accused Iran of lying about its nuclear program.

In October of 2008 Iranian sources reported that two seismic events were not earthquakes but nuclear tests.  The story was generated by an Israeli source, and picked up by The Guardian in the U.K.; wide coverage and commentary absent.  The “what if” in that report puts the time line for a potential warhead near at hand.

Of greater concern is the possibility that an Iranian nuclear weapon may be focused less on targeting a ground based target but on generating an off shore EMP attack.  That tactic significantly simplifies the Iranian challenges.  A boat is easier than a missile and a serious EMP attack does massive damage to a nearly defenseless electronic infrastructure.   

But, fear not ……..take heart.  As of May 16th, 2010 the European negotiating team was still scheduling negotiating sessions with Iran.