Questions for Independents.

As the President moves to reconstitute his winning 2008 alliance he has called on African Americans, Hispanics and women to once again rally to support Democrats.  One must assume he choose those words carefully. 

Concurrently the DNC announces that they will announce a strategy aimed at independents.  Seems strange, if I had a killer strategy I would put it in play without an announcement.  You know that whole stealth thing, creeping up on you independents before you see me coming! Maybe a political pro could explain that one?

What this strategy will look like?  Independents are off the Democratic reservation for the moment. The President has lost a plurality of independent support.  A little less hope and way too much change would be a fair guess.  Independent self identification is growing; party affiliation decreasing. Up to 40% now identify themselves as independents.  Strong independent orientation toward candidates of either party is more than enough to swing elections.  A genuine 20% is probably all of the independent juice required to swing elections; and thus the likely scope of the problem being recognized and attacked by the DNC.

What can they say that would appeal to an independent voter who has likely just escaped?  What will be said that bears the patina of truth and sells the idea that independents should be happy with current circumstances?  Independents may be offended as the cold target of spin and implication.  Will they be drawn to “trust me, (wink, wink) the checks in the mail!”  “Listen, hey, we know we went a little bit too far but we’ll make it all alright; do you really, really, really want the other guy, the No Guy?”  “Trust me; come on along everything will be fine!”

No sooner is the Health Care Bill passed than the numbers begin to change, when the numbers are limited by Congressional assumptions, we get CBO estimates.  Actuarial analysis, unbound by political considerations shows a much more dramatic and desperate financial picture associated with Health Care.  How does that strike your independent bones and oh, by the way, that No Guy told you this was going to happen.  But then you, Mr. or Ms. Independent knew, in your bones that it had to go that way.  You hoped for the best, you might consider preparing for the worst.   

Opps, Senator Boxer discovers a “loop hole” in the Heath Care Bill, “oh my God this is awful”.  Damn, we forgot to get the power to regulate Health Insurance Company pricing!  The bill is filed to “fix”, no pun indented, that little oversight.  The No Guy told you this whole process would creep if it wasn’t stopped.  He was wrong, it’s not creeping its running a four minute mile.  So if independents opposed Health Care, should they accept the “trust me” argument?

The economy will improve a little, for a little while, probably till just around Election Day.  The No Guy told you a lot of the money in the Stimulus Bill was targeted just pre-election.  Remember?  Will you accept an arc of permanence related to economic improvement in light of the fact that all of the big, determinate numbers are horrific?  GDP, debt, spending, employment, pension funds, financial reform that will push banking oversees and a pending regulatory regime that will outdo all others that came before it.  You don’t have to imagine its happening; CO2, salt, sugar, non diet soda.

No tax increases for those making under $250,000! Opps, what I really meant was no new Federal Income Taxes.” Sorry, misspoke for 10 months on that one, sorry, my bad!  “Trust me!”

Missile defense is out, successful Engagement with Iran, nope, not so far.  The VP, incomprehensibly, says Iraq is a great accomplishment for President Obama who wanted the troops out two years ago.  Can you imagine?

Israel is under fire; not a word of warning for Hiz’bAllah or Hamas.  Canada castigated by Secretary Clinton.  England insulted, twice.  Germany says “I don’t think so” to the U.S. led bail out mania.  The Czech Republic and Poland hung out to dry for being courageous in the face of a looming Russian Bear.

Russia and China cannot be convinced to support Iranian sanctions.  The same manner of hurdle occurred in advance of the 2nd Iraq war when France and Germany balked for financial considerations.  Russia, China, France, Germany, it’s really all the same; they, as they should, protect their own self interest and share no fear of significant response from us. Worry not; “We’ll fix it, we’ll “engage””.   

As predicted long ago the idea of accepting an Iranian Bomb is now gaining currency including in the latest edition of Foreign Affairs, the formula?  We get sanctions that we cannot get, we accept Iranian nuclear development.  Then, after they’ve got the bomb we lay down an aggressive set of markers that Iran has to observe or we threaten military intervention.  That logic gives “kicking the can down the road” a whole new meaning.  The No Guy would predict that this goes Neville Chamberlain one better and no good can come of it.

So…………. How’s that independent streak holding up?