The good news is that American people seem to be rallying against ObamaCare and they plan to do so at the voting booth. The bad news, however, is that this is Gallup we’re talking about. However, the rest of the good news is that Gallup is now the latest in a line of polling outfits to find Republicans winning the vote on a generic congressional ballot.
Organizations such as Rasmussen have had this trend for months now but what makes this Gallup poll significant is that it is of registered voters, not the usual likely voters we’ve seen in the Rasmussen generic congressional ballot polls. This is significant since often polls which use registered voters (i.e. people registered to vote though they may not actually vote) usually trend toward Democratic candidates. Models using likely voters (i.e. voters who are registered and will actually show up at the polls) tend to be more favorable for Republicans.
The release from Gallup:
PRINCETON, NJ — Registered voters now say they prefer the Republican to the Democratic candidate in their district by 47% to 44% in the midterm congressional elections, the first time the GOP has led in 2010 election preferences since Gallup began weekly tracking of these in March.
The March 22-28 results were obtained after the U.S. House’s passage of landmark healthcare reform legislation on March 21. The shift toward Republicans raises the possibility that the healthcare bill had a slightly negative impact on the Democrats’ political fortunes in the short run.
A separate USA Today/Gallup poll conducted March 26-28 showed a similar result, with Republicans ahead by 46% to 45%.
These results suggest the Republicans would have a strong showing if the midterm elections were held today. Since Republicans usually vote at higher rates than Democrats, the Republicans’ edge in voter preferences would likely exceed what the registered voter results indicate.
The last line speaks to what I explained above, that Republicans winning amongst registered voters doesn’t bode well for Democrats come November.
I know, it’s a couple polls and we’re months away. However, I believe it is important to point this out since it flies in the face of Democrat claims that the American people will “grow to love” this bill once it is passed.
Here’s the chart from the past several weeks:
Not a good trend for Democratic candidates looking for reelection.