One Day, or Another!

Iranian politics have, since the revolution, been guided by a reasonably consistent core.  The core reflects what a self declared “Islamic Republic” must be, guided by Islam, in the temporal form of an elite Iranian Clergy.  Religious, civil, legal and social issues are all a reflection of Islamic law.  The religious and political orientation of the ruling clerics is no secret; they are conservative, tend toward fundamentalism and have the inherent tendency to adopt change only on the margins, at least until now.       

The internal stakes in Iran appear to be growing based on the rise in domestic violence and ever more draconian actions by the government.  It appears that the central government will continue to crack down on dissidents as dissidents, in turn, grow more militaristic. 

Two executions occurred in Iran last week, sixteen more  trials of protestors commence this week.

An Iranian prosecutor was assassinated two weeks ago.  He was investigating “anti-revolutionary elements, as well as bandits, immoral individuals and land-grabbers,” said Web site Jahan News.  What manner of regime tends to crack down on “anti revolutionary elements”?  Go ahead, make a list, I’ll wait.

Protestors are being tried, convicted and executed on an acceleratingly  regular basis.  Thousands of political prisoners are jailed.  Western views tend to undervalue the premise that imprisonment carries with it the additional label of “un-Islamic”; a serious state of affairs, perhaps more so than the actual occurrence of a crime.  Protestors claim that they are willing to pay with their lives and they are doing just that.

A bomb detonated outside the governor-general’s office in Khorasan Razavi province on January 17th.  An unsuccessful suicide attempt against the government, an attempt none the less.

An increasing number of Iranian clerics are pushing back against the government crackdown labeling the jailing of demonstrators and executions as the true un-Islamic behavior.

The death of an Iranian nuclear scientist has been blamed, of course, on the Israeli Mossad and the American CIA; Iran, of course, vows revenge.  The facts of the situation argue less that it was an assassination by the Mossad than a message from the Iranian government to its scientific community. 

The opposition in Iran is reorganizing and consolidating vowing to continue their efforts.

One wonders if the Clerics have fully contemplated  the two days that could change everything; each a potential prelude to dramatic change. 

What happens on the day when the Basij or the IRGC refuses to fire on, or fight their  fellow Iranians? 

What happens on the day when the Basij or the IRGC fire too often or too well, on their fellow citizens?  Each day, as possible as the other: one of them, likely to occur in the near future; each day with earth shattering precedents in history.  

Iran could sink further into fascist totalitarianism.  Iran could also rise and demand their place among the community of nations.  Iran could become yet more of a pariah or Iran could unleash the tremendous potential of its people.

It will soon be, one day or another.