The final Mason-Dixon battleground polls are out across the board showing ties within the margin of error, or extremely close races in each of the important swing states this time around. Mason-Dixon’s battleground polls were fairly accurate in 2004 so it’s worth nothing their final polling, if you put much stock in it.
Here’s the rundown of Mason-Dixon’s latest numbers out this afternoon, their final polling before Election Day tomorrow:
Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5
As Brad Coker, who runs the Mason-Dixon poll, notes, the vast majority of the undecided voters in these states are whites, so take for what it’s worth.
The trouble spots I see for McCain are Colorado, Nevada, and possibly Virginia at this point. The trouble spots for Obama in this round might include Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina where they’ve been spending a lot of time trying to turn those states.
Pennsylvania is a true toss-up here. Polls have showed Obama leading steadily, however, they’re trending slightly toward McCain. Internal polling, from what I’ve heard, shows that both campaigns believe Pennsylvania is a bit closer than the public polls, though I have no evidence to support that notion. Current Pennsylvania Governor, and Obama surrogate, Ed Rendell has been worried in the remaining days that Pennsylvania could swing to McCain, thus his continued request for more Obama rallies and campaign stops in the state.
If these polls are even remotely accurate, the race is very tight in all these states.
Sound off, how do you think each of these states will end up?