John Zogby, the man behind the Zogby polling organization, which is partnered with Reuters and C-SPAN, made some interesting comments a day ago concerning the Presidential race. In the Zogby tracking polls, Obama leads McCain but hasn’t been able to pull out of the margin of error.
Note: I don’t put much stock into a single poll, however, I found his comments more interesting than the polling data.
The story from The Bulletin:
There is no mistaking that Sen. Barack Obama, thanks in large part to a faltering economy, has made significant gains in the waning days before November’s election. But at least one pollster is adamant that the race is far from over.
“I don’t think Obama has closed the deal yet,” John Zogby told the Boston Herald. The latest Zogby tracking poll released Thursday showed Mr. Obama with a four-point lead over John McCain. Mr. Obama receives 48 percent of the vote and Mr. McCain receives 44 percent.
The poll points out that Mr. Obama retained his lead over Mr. McCain, but the Democrat “has been unable to break away, outside the margin of error of Zogby polling.”
Mr. Zogby compared this election to that of 1980, when Americans did not warm to Ronald Reagan until the days immediately preceding the election.
“The Sunday before the election, the dam burst,” Mr. Zogby said, “That’s when voters determined they were comfortable with Reagan.”
As for now, this election could still “break one way or the other.”
I like reading about historical comparisons as they’re one way to judge where the election might be headed. If Zogby’s assertions are correct, the race will break in the waning few days before election day to either McCain or Obama. As of now, Obama is sitting in a good position.
Then again, he is one pollster so this may be voided by the dozen or so other polls. The RealClearPolitics average keeps inching toward Obama now giving him a 7.6% lead on average, which is probably just outside the margin of error by most polls.