Market Betting on Palin to Drop Out

Traders on Intrade, the “prediction market” are currently betting on Gov. Sarah Palin withdrawing as the Republican Vice President nominee before the 2008 presidential election. Intrade is an online trading exchange website that speculates on political trends and developments, a sister company of TradeSports.

According to Katharine Zaleski of the Huffington Post, September 2, 2008:

The Intrade prediction market has opened trading on whether “Sarah Palin [is] to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election.” At 8:55 am, Tuesday morning, the market is selling the prediction at 18 a share and rising. That means 18 percent of traders think there is a chance that Palin will be removed from the ticket.

Intrade predicted Joe Biden would be Barack Obama’s running mate in August and its traders were also correct about every Senate race in 2006. It fell flat in predicting a Democratic majority.

Stock markets do not determine the future, but they do reflect consumer assumptions and feelings. If proven correct, this prediction would spell significant problems to the McCain administration. But as of now, it is only a commodified prediction.