Looking ahead to West Virginia happening tomorrow, May 13th, the polls are heavily in Hillary Clinton’s favor with a possible 30 to 40 point blowout victory. Furthermore, Kentucky happening on May 20th is looking to shaping up as a lopsided win for Clinton as well.
As evidence pointing to the possibility of a major blowout, take this chart of polls over the past few days and weeks:
West Virginia Democratic Primary
Primary Date: May 13 | Delegates at Stake: 28
Why the ridiculous edge for Clinton, you ask? Well some of it has to do with an outright opposition to Obama. Some explanation from this story in the Financial Times:
Like most people in Mingo County, West Virginia, Leonard Simpson is a lifelong Democrat. But given a choice between Barack Obama and John McCain in November, the 67-year-old retired coalminer would vote Republican.
â€œI heard that Obama is a Muslim and his wifeâ€™s an atheist,â€ said Mr Simpson, drawing on a cigarette outside the fire station in Williamson, a coalmining town of 3,400 people surrounded by lush wooded hillsides.
Mr Simpsonâ€™s remarks help explain why Mr Obama is trailing Hillary Clinton, his Democratic rival, by 40 percentage points ahead of Tuesdayâ€™s primary election in the heavily white and rural state, according to recent opinion polls.
A landslide victory for Mrs Clinton in West Virginia will do little to improve her fading hopes of winning the Democratic nomination, because Mr Obama has an almost insurmountable lead in the overall race.
But Tuesdayâ€™s contest is likely to reinforce Mrs Clintonâ€™s argument that she would be the stronger opponent for Mr McCain in November, and raise fresh doubts about whether the US is ready to elect its first black president.
Occupying a swathe of the Appalachian Mountains on the threshold between the Bible Belt and the Rust Belt, West Virginia is a swing state that voted twice for George W. Bush but backed Democrats in six of the eight prior presidential elections.
That is part of the explanation, though I don’t buy the notion that every single WV voter thinks Obama is a “closet Muslim.” I do, however, think WV holds true with trends in other states where Clinton takes less educated voters overwhelmingly. Obama’s strongest suit is college educated voters who seem to want to take a chance on him as a “new kind” of politician. Less educated voters see Clinton as a stronger candidate who can actually produce results, whereas Obama would be taking a chance they can’t afford.
Therefore, we have a probable blowout victory tomorrow.
A video report on West Virginia from the Associated Press:
Similar trends are heading in that direction for Kentucky as well:
Kentucky is a similar makeup to West Virginia which is Clinton territory. Truth be told, even two Clinton blowout victories will not change the course of this nomination process other than give her some ammunition to argue that she can carry the swing states come November.
We’ll be covering WV tomorrow once the polls close Tuesday evening at 7:30pm eastern.