Poll Shows 20-Point Lead for Hillary in Pennsylvania – Update: Or Does It?

One poll has shown a reaction by voters to the “bitterness” comments while others still show Obama’s poll numbers holding steady. A new American Research Group poll is showing the 20 point advantage and is currently alone in showing such a staunch lead for Clinton.

The numbers breakdown from ARG:

As shown, about a week ago they had the two candidates tied so clearly there’s been some change.

RealClearPolitics still has Hillary up by 7 points on average. However, they don’t have many recent polls figured in so this will be developing over the next few days as new Pennsylvania polls are released.

Here’s a report on it from USAToday:

A survey of Pennsylvania Democrats that was done in part after the news broke about Sen. Barack Obama’s controversial comment that some small-town folks are “bitter” and cling to religion and guns in difficult times, shows him now trailing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Keystone State by 20 percentage points.

American Research Group says this morning that its latest poll shows Clinton ahead 57%-37%. The survey of 600 “likely” Democratic primary voters was begun Friday and completed on Sunday. The news about Obama’s “bitter” comments broke late Friday afternoon.

In ARG’s previous Pennsylvania survey, done a week earlier, Clinton and Obama were tied at 45%. That tie, though, was an “outlier.” Most Pennsylvania polls have given Clinton at least a 5 percentage point lead.

ARG’s new survey has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

As we always say: Polls are snapshots of current public opinion, not forecasts of what will happen on any Election Day that’s still a ways off. Pennsylvania’s primary is getting closer, though. It’s one week from tomorrow.

The national lead for Obama has remained steady, he still has wider national appeal among Democrats over Hillary Clinton.


New polls show Obama’s national lead is the strongest it’s ever been. Here’s the latest numbers from Gallup:

Then there’s this story from the LA Times concerning Hillary’s lead in Pennsylvania and Indiana:

WASHINGTON — With three crucial Democratic primaries looming, Hillary Rodham Clinton may not be headed toward the blockbuster victories she needs to jump-start her presidential bid — even in Pennsylvania, the state that was supposed to be her ace in the hole, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.

The survey found the New York senator leading Barack Obama by just 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which votes next Tuesday. Such a margin would not give her much of a boost in the battle for the party’s nomination.

What is more, the poll found Clinton trails Obama by 5 points in Indiana, another Rust Belt state that should play to her strengths among blue-collar voters.

In North Carolina, an Obama stronghold, he is running 13 points ahead.

The race remains volatile, however, because many likely voters in the Democratic primaries are still undecided — 12% in Pennsylvania, 19% in Indiana and 17% in North Carolina.

The races remain tight and very fluid as it comes nearer to the actual voting date in Pennsylvania of April 22nd. The debate tomorrow should also toss more variables into the mix depending on how each candidate does.