Analysis: Obama vs. Clinton on Super Tuesday

First off, I’ll run with this video of Hillary Clinton getting a bit teared up today during an event in New Haven, Connecticut:

Here’s the report on this from The Swamp:

NEW HAVEN, Conn. – Sen. Hillary Clinton teared up this morning at an event at the Yale Child Study Center, where she worked while in law school in the early 1970s.

Penn Rhodeen, who was introducing Clinton, began to choke up, leading Clinton’s eyes to fill with tears, which she wiped out of her left eye. At the time, Rhodeen was saying how proud he was that the sheepskin-coat, bell-bottom-wearing young woman he met in 1972 was now running for president.

“Well, I said I would not tear up; already we’re not exactly on the path,” Clinton said with emotion after the introduction.

Clinton is holding a roundtable discussion with Connecticut women to talk about childcare and healthcare.

Contrived or legitimate? You tell me. It just seems coincidental that, similar to New Hampshire, she’s showing some real emotion the day before a major vote.

Anyway, beyond that, Barack Obama has gone a long way in making up a tremendous amount of ground against Hillary Clinton over the past 30 days. Strongholds like New Jersey, New York, and California where Clinton was leading by 20 or sometimes 30 points, Obama has made up ground and is now within striking distances.

California is the most dramatic chart:

California Democratic Poll Average Chart

They’re statistically tied in California and the momentum is moving Obama’s direction. Hillary’s been on a reasonably steady trend but certainly hasn’t been moving up. Obama is bringing in new voters while Clinton is fighting to keep the ones she already has.

For the Democrats, California proportions it’s delegates, it’s not winner-take-all which means even a close second place gives Obama a huge amount of delegates.

The bottom line for the Democrats is that Super Tuesday will not produce a real front runner. Instead, it will prove that Obama has the ability to compete on a national level and Hillary Clinton’s support may not be as solid as once assumed.

Clinton will probably win more delegates but Obama will be right behind her leaving no clear Democratic leader.