After South Carolina, it may.
They claim there’s a four-way tie but that’s only reflected in one poll. The rest of the polls at RealClearPolitics only show a three-way tie between McCain, Romney, and Giuliani, in that order respectively.
However, these polls DO NOT reflect the sentiment following Thompson’s withdrawal from the race. His 7 or so points will head somewhere and could push any of the top three as the leader. I’m thinking it’s going to be Romney.
Then there’s this story from Yahoo!:
ORLANDO, Fla. – The aftermath of the South Carolina primary brought some measure of clarity to the muddled Republican presidential race.
Florida could well sort it out.
In the four days since they stumbled in the first-in-the-South primary, Fred Thompson dropped out and Mike Huckabee made clear that money is extremely tight, his campaign little more than a token effort. That leaves John McCain and Mitt Romney fighting it out while Rudy Giuliani, who has staked his candidacy on the state, trails in winner-take-all Florida as the focus shifts to the slumping economy.
Here’s my Florida semi-prediction. It’s either going to be Romney or McCain which emerge victorious. Right now, I’m leaning toward Romney because I think he’ll absorb many of Thompson’s supporters.