Today is Michigan primary day but only the Republican Primary actually matters. For more on the Democratic side, see this post.
As of now, it appears that Romney was leading in the polls among Republicans heading into Michigan.
Here’s a little montage of reports I put together from Fox, ABC, and CBS:
So the question here is, will Democrats and Independents give John McCain the victory? Will Michigan turn into a New Hampshire for the Republicans? In that I mean, Romney got the majority of Republican votes in New Hampshire but independents and democrats pushed McCain over the top. In Michigan polls, Romney is leading among Republican voters. However, with no serious Democratic primary, will the same thing happen again with McCain winning thanks to Democrats and Independents?
I am reserving judgment on a guess but I think it’s very, very possible. In fact, Romney only leads among Republicans by a few points on average so if a reasonable number of independents and democrats come out for McCain, Romney is done in Michigan.
I don’t think it’s make-or-break for Romney in Michigan, he has the cash to move on to South Carolina and go to Super Tuesday on Feb. 5th.
I’ll have more updates as news comes out followed by the official Michigan primary results sometime tonight around 8pm eastern.
A low turnout could bode well for Romney as he will probably win the majority of Republicans. However, a larger turnout will help McCain as independents will probably go heavily for him.
Update @ 4:36 pm
I will be on BTR Today with Shaun Daily around 6:30 pm eastern time to discuss tonight’s debate and the Michigan primaries.
You can listen live here: BTR Today
Update @ 6:06 pm
Some exit polls coming out showing that about 68% considered themselves Republicans, Independents made up about 25%. Of the independents, 34% going to McCain, 23% to Romney. Contrast that to the Republican voters who are going 38% for Romney and only 25% for McCain. We’ll see how this pans out starting around 8pm eastern time with some official results in a new post.
Update @ 7:10 pm
The Drudge Report is showing exit polls of the following:
EXIT POLLS SHOW: Romney 34, McCain 29, Huckabee 16
Of course, these are totally unofficial and could be completely wrong. We’ll have the official results rolling out in a new post around 8pm eastern.
Update @ 7:37 pm
Here’s a link to the official results:
Official 2008 Michigan Primary Results