New Hampshire Starts Voting At Midnight, Prediction Time

Yes, that’s correct, some places in New Hampshire begin voting at midnight on Tuesday, 1/8 so it’s time for some meaningless predictions.

Here are the latest polls for each side with a bit of analysis.

First, the Democrats:

NH Primary RCP Average

As you can see, Obama has a pretty decent lead on average by 6 or 7 points, some polls individually have him up about 10 or more over Clinton. With this information, I’m going to say that Obama wins handily in New Hampshire, it might even be a 10 point blowout considering the polls are trending heavy toward Obama. It’s also looking like Edwards is going to take 3rd this time and not pull another upset over Clinton.

So I’m saying Obama wins by a good 8-10 points perhaps. Clinton takes 2nd and Edwards is 3rd.

Next, the Republicans:

NH Primary GOP RCP Average

The Republicans are running a little tighter with McCain clearly holding a slight edge. New Hampshire likes McCain, intrinsically for some reason. This one is close but I’m still giving McCain the victory at this point. Romney will once again take 2nd but it may be a bit closer this time, possibly really close. The bigger story here is whether Huckabee can hold on to 3rd over Giuliani. Furthermore, Ron Paul might even take 4th over Giuliani as well, that wouldn’t surprise me either.

So here’s the deal, McCain takes first followed by a close Romney. I’m giving Huckabee 3rd due to his surge from Iowa and I think Giuliani and Paul will be about tied for 4th with one just edging the other out. If Thompson manages 2%, I’ll be amazed.

Here’s the guys from Political Lunch with a New Hampshire rundown of where things stand:

So, what do you all think?


OK, well like a few people in New Hampshire start voting at midnight, story from My Way:

DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H. (AP) – Voters in two small New Hampshire villages prepared to cast the initial ballots after the stroke of midnight Tuesday in the nation’s first presidential primary.

Sixteen people were registered to vote at The Balsams Grand Resort Hotel. Another 29 people were prepared to vote at the Hart’s Location town hall, about 75 miles away.

The middle-of-the night votes are closely watched, and the results are flashed worldwide moments after they are tallied.

State law allows towns with fewer than 100 people to open at midnight and to close as soon as all registered voters have cast ballots.

Once they vote, I’ll post the results even though according to Carl Cameron on Fox News, the midnight voting has never been correct for the past 100 years. So perhaps we can garner which candidates will not win.


Here’s some video and the results of the first votes counted at midnight:

New Hampshire Primary Counting Begins