Latest Polling News From New Hampshire

This compressed 5 days between Iowa and New Hampshire seems insane. However, the polls have been telling an interesting tale, especially concerning Clinton and Obama.

I’ll start with the Democrats.

At this point, the RealClearPolitics poll averages have Obama leading Clinton by 4 points. Here’s how it breaks down:

RCP New Hampshire Poll Averages:

34.3 – Obama
30.9 – Clinton
18.9 – Edwards
5.4 – Richardson

For the period of 1/2 to 1/5.

That’s excellent news for Obama and awful news for Clinton. As of this time, it appears that something I predicted a while ago is starting to happen, at least in these early states. Unfortunately I can’t seem to find the post to prove that I can at least be right 50% of the time, but it appears the trend is moving away from Clinton.

What I surmised was that there were a lot of voters who liked Obama, but were on the fence about him. They were going with Clinton because she was a comfortable choice. However, once Obama won Iowa, the floodgates opened and I think a lot of waffling Clinton supporters may have decided that they should give Obama a chance.

However, the trend begins to change for Obama once you hit Michigan and Nevada, which are both squarely Clinton territory at this point.

Next, the Republicans.

Right now at least, McCain is leading Romney by a few points. Here’s the rundown:

RCP New Hampshire Poll Averages:

32.7 – McCain
28.1 – Romney
11.4 – Huckabee
9.1 – Giuliani
8.0 – Paul
2.4 – Thompson

Can Romney withstand yet another loss? The question really is, do these early contests even matter for Republicans if different candidates win Iowa, New Hampshire, and maybe South Carolina? McCain is the story of the year on this side as many predicted he would have been out of the race in September of 2007. He treaded on and now is in the position to take New Hampshire, a state which is prepared to now reward him a second time as they did in 2000.

Of course, both the Republican and Democratic races are quite fluid and these could change by tomorrow heading into Tuesday. However, there isn’t that much time for candidates sway more voters.

It will be down to the wire like Iowa but right now it’s looking like Obama and McCain are in really good positions.