Analysis Of The Latest Iowa Polls

Here are snapshots of both the Republican and Democratic RealClearPolitics poll averages for Iowa. They don’t tell you much other than the fact that the race on both sides is basically a dead heat.


Iowa Democratic Poll Averages

As you can see, the RCP average is basically a three-way tie within the margin of error. Edwards trails a little but he’s still very close. Obama and Clinton are completely tied with new polls seeming to go back and forth. Iowa for the Democrats will hinge on where Edwards’ supporters end up going, either to Obama or Clinton. If they split, then it’s close but if they all abandon Clinton and support Obama, they’ll push him over the top. That’s not so far fetched either since Edwards and Obama are more in line than Edwards and Clinton. It’s also possible that the top three are so close that it’s sort of declared a tie at which point we move to New Hampshire where it will probably get ugly between Obama and Clinton.


Republican Iowa Poll Averages

As you can see with the Republicans, Romney and Huckabee are locked in a dead heat. If Romney wins, it will be somewhat expected since he’s been leading Iowa for a good 6 months or more until the “Huck-a-boom”. If Huckabee wins, then it’s a major upset and the battle continues into New Hampshire and South Carolina. The real question in Iowa will be to see who wins 3rd place, McCain or Thompson. They are locked in a dead heat right now as well. If McCain wins 3rd he’ll have a better shot at New Hampshire. If Thompson places 3rd, he’ll have a better shot of staying in the race long enough to try and win more states.

I won’t wager any predictions until tomorrow.