McCain, Obama Making Big Gains in New Hampshire – Video Added

Apparently so, according to a story from USAToday:

PELHAM, N.H. — Democratic presidential hopefuls Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat among New Hampshire voters in a statewide USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, underscoring the volatility of the race less than three weeks before the nation’s first primary.

Among Republicans, Mitt Romney’s lead has narrowed to single digits over John McCain, who hopes to repeat the victory here that ignited his presidential campaign in 2000.

In the poll, Clinton and Obama are tied at 32%-32%, with Edwards at 18%. No other candidate breaks into double digits.

Counting only those who say their vote is certain, Clinton narrowly leads Obama, 20%-18%. Edwards is backed by 10%.

In the Republican race, Romney leads McCain, 34%-27%. Including only those whose votes are set, Romney’s lead narrows to 19%-15%, within the survey’s margin of error of +/— 5 points.

Effectively tied for third place are former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, at 11%, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, each at 9%.

So the breakdown of the new numbers from the Gallup Poll in New Hampshire:


Obama – 32%
Clinton – 32
Edwards – 18


Romney – 34%
McCain – 27
Giuliani – 11
Paul – 9
Huckabee – 9

That’s big news for Obama, and very good news for McCain especially considering last month, Romney and Clinton were leading with double digits. At this point, an Obama win in Iowa could give him a win in New Hampshire. I still don’t think McCain will win Iowa or New Hampshire.

I would just close in pointing out that I think the Iowa caucus results are going to shape the New Hampshire outcome quite a bit so it’s hard to say much until after Iowa takes place.


OK well this video from WMUR sort of disputes what I said about Iowa affecting the New Hampshire outcome:

But let me explain my line of thinking.

Apparently 94% of New Hampshire voters says Iowa won’t affect their votes, only 6% say it will. I’ve got to personally believe the number is more like 80/20 or so. People say that now but if Obama wins Iowa, that puts a decent chink in Hillary’s armor. It may not be as dramatic on the Republican side if Huckabee wins Iowa. I think the Democratic race is closer in New Hampshire thus, many voters could be swayed by an Obama victory in Iowa.