New Hampshire is the wild card for Republicans – Updated

From AOL News:

MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) – New Hampshire is known for turning Republican presidential primaries upside down.

It could happen again this year.

This is true, the polls have been all over the place, even Ron Paul has a percentage of the electorate.

Polls show a tight race for the GOP nomination in the state. Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are in strong contention. Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul could complicate an already muddled contest.

Uncertainties abound:

For starters, a date for the primary hasn’t even been set.

Independents can vote in either party’s primary, making them a wild card.

Many declared Republicans say they’re still undecided.

Paul, a libertarian-leaning long-shot Texas congressman, could emerge as a serious contender in the “Live Free or Die” state.

The state’s recent history is rife with Republican primary voters giving non-establishment candidates a boost, and rocking the race.

Since McCain took New Hampshire in 2000, he actually might have a chance there. I doubt it, but anythings possible.

Ron Paul could steal votes from someone and turn the vote upside down. Giuliani has the best chance to upset Romney who currently leads in the polls.

There are so many undecideds in the Republican constituency at this point that the nomination is still very much up in the air. If I had to guess a winner at this point I would have to say Romney only because he leads in all the early state polls. However, there’s far from being a guarantee.

Iowa’s caucus on January 3rd will only give us a small clue as to how Republicans will truly vote, New Hampshire will still be wide open I’m guessing.


Of course, after I write this a Rasmussen Poll comes out showing Romney at 32%, Giuliani at 17%, McCain at 16%, and Huckabee at 10%.

Still, it’s one poll and none of the others have released recent polls. We’ll revisit this over the next few days but I’m guessing this is more of an anomaly than a trend for Romney.

New Hampshire GOP Primary

Mitt Romney 32%
Rudy Giuliani 17%
John McCain 16%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Fred Thompson 7%
Ron Paul 4%
Tom Tancredo 3%
Duncan Hunter 2%

New Hampshire is volatile and this will undoubtedly change yet again.