Could Obama upset Hillary in Iowa?

The New York Times is floating that question:

NEW HAMPTON, Iowa, Oct. 5 — A broad grin spread across Senator Barack Obama’s face as he turned to walk away from a city park here on Friday after shaking the last hand and posing for a final photograph with a clutch of supporters.

Given the political news of the week, at least back in Washington, why the smile?

“It’s not over,” Mr. Obama said, pausing for a moment to answer an open-ended question about the state of the campaign. “Presumably if they thought the race was over, they wouldn’t be taking the time to come to a town hall meeting to talk about the presidential race.”

Hillay has a commanding lead all over the country except for Iowa. According to RealClearPolitics, Hillary is 21 points on average ahead of Obama nationally. Iowa, however, is a different story. Hillary’s average lead is only 3.5 points and some polls have shown Obama 6 points ahead. I can’t imagine this is a comfortable place to be for the Clinton campaign.

Still, three months before the Iowa caucuses open the nominating contests on both sides of the ticket, a fresh sense of urgency is at hand for Mr. Obama as he tries to change the dynamic of the race. Mrs. Clinton, who started the year perceived to be trailing Mr. Obama and former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina in Iowa, has crept up in state polls and turned it into a three-way fight in the state, adding even more importance to the efforts by her opponents here.

On a four-day tour through Iowa this week, Mr. Obama continued to draw large crowds. He sharpened his message about his early opposition to the war, he devoted more time to voters’ questions, and he talked increasingly about the need for Democrats to choose a candidate who is honest and, ultimately, able to bring about change.

Honestly I still believe Hillary will take Iowa and the nomination. However, Iowa still isn’t a lock. I think people are going to have a gut-check moment and decide they really don’t want a light-weight like Obama running the country.

I’ll leave you with video of Barack Obama on the Tyra Banks Show: