Wikileak disclosures may help explain why we’re getting slapped around on such a consistent basis; leaks, however are unnecessary. Symptoms prevail, the most recent slap downs occurred, across a fair portion of Asia and the sub-continent. We may complain about our friends all we like; our friends are complaining about us as well. We elected the guy who thought the idea of engagement without pre-conditions was good policy. We were warned…….by Hillary.
Engagement without preconditions aimed at Iran demonstrated a comprehensive misunderstanding of Iranian interests or self confidence sufficient to cast valid understandings aside; hubris? So soon? A dismissive response was on the way. Iran responded with the demand for pre-conditions as they define them! That, my friends, is diplomatic slap down, to be followed by others.
The Iranians bought seven years: held off serious sanctions, created time and space for the nuclear program. Diplomacy in service to self interest. You may begin to think they’re smarter than we and the Euros are; you are correct! You may also assume that by our definitions, there are no restrictions based on Iranian conscience. Pure self interest aimed at regional hegemony and geo-political cover by way of nuclear weapons. The specter of Persian Empire is a long standing goal for Tehran and a dark shadow to nearly everyone else in the region.
During the seven year “engagement” the nuclear program continued, but not just. Iran expanded the terror network: exported ideology and weapons to the Gaza Strip, successfully gained some measure of political control in Iraq, participated militarily in Iraq, providing supplies, explosives, training and operational support to the “insurgents” killing U.S. Soldiers and Marines. Iran extended their influence to Afghanistan and solidified the Hiz’bAllah shadow government in Lebanon; Iran continually reconstituted relations with Syria as Syria attempted to develop their own secret nuclear program, North Koreans observed in both countries. Iran traveled the world in an attempt to extend influence and create alliances against the potential impact of sanctions. Iran traveled the socialist and authoritarian world establishing relationships. Very busy they were! The idea that Iran will submit based on another speech does not appear to be working out.
Inexperience and flawed analysis demonstrated during the campaign has clearly survived nearly two years. Engaging, resetting, holding out of hands and hitting of restart buttons; “we can do this diplomatically” while at the same time removing fear of reprisal in the short term. Diplomacy requires mutual self interest, fear of consequences or some combination of the two. The inspiration of fear is absent, demonstrated by our ongoing relationship with the Dauphin of terror financing, Saudi Arabia.
When North Korea sank the South Korean ship in March we were scheduled to execute joint operations with the South Koreans, in international waters. Under Chinese pressure the exercise was cancelled. Here we are again; same issue, same timing, more nuclear baggage. Surprise!
Fear not, China’s people have called our people, we’ll do lunch in Beijing, in December.
Keep an eye out; Iran and North Korea have been known to get into “crisis” mode on a fairly even timeline.
China’s “senior” concern is the potential for refugees from North Korea, should the situation in Korea not remain “stable”. Stable? Stable? To validate this concern we assume that the Chinese army along the North Korean border is incapable of stopping unarmed, starving, and half-dead North Korean peasants! Come on now; we know you guys are tougher than that!
North Korea is a Chinese client. Nothing is going on in North Korea that China lacks a hand in. If the Chinese can “test” the Americans by way of North Korea and maintain the fiction of non involvement, are we outsmarted by them as well?
Russia managed to get one defensive missile deployment cancelled and deposit themselves in the middle of defining what an “acceptable” system would be. Our “friends” the Russians helped us out with that. Our friends helped us define acceptability for defensive missiles, potentially, useful in protecting Eastern Europe from ……… the Russians.
How did the Russians do it? They do it with clear definition of self interest, political will and the assumption that the U.S. would not or could not stand as a true superpower anymore. No guns, no bullets, political will grown of an essential dictatorship! “No we will not engage you as long as those missile deployments are in the mix”. It worked! Anything that works will be repeated, observed and repeated again and again.
Most parents understand that if you reward petulance, intimidation and bad behavior, you get more! Cut it off, get less!