Iran May Be Russia’s Game

Russia has priorities, not difficult to determine: energy production and transportation, regional hegemony, tacit U.S. agreement to a broadened Russian sphere of influence, eliminate or negate NATO expansion, eliminate defensive weapons systems, creating an essential Russian commonwealth in the region and the attraction of U.S. capital back into the Russian economy while continuing to minimize the U.S. politically.  The punctuation for these intentions is an expanding military, energy and weapons manufacturing capability.  Alliances and dependencies have been created across the globe, with high presence in the Middle East, Central Asia and the former Soviet republics.

Russia’s nuclear use policy of 2009 is a warning, “how about another Cold War comrade?  Russia’s strategy related to Iran has been an elegant waltz along the line defining Russian diplomatic and economic self interest.  The U.S. needs Russia’s vote in the Security Council, the Euros won’t budge without a resolution.  Iran depends on Russia for reactor completion, engineering expertise and potentially the S300 anti aircraft system.  The S300 system is the greatest threat to an attacking air force, should an attack be launched against Iran.  While the Russians negotiated an exception for the S300 in the U.N. resolution, the Russians said nyet to Iran……….. for the moment. 

The Iranians have been fighting with the Russians over completion schedules and work progress for years, including public statements by the Supreme Leader about Russian complicity.  Iran however, has no where else to go, save North Korea which is a little busy at the moment. 

Iran may be a little frantic, last week a plane load of Russian nuclear engineers went home for a while without notification to Iranian officials.  The S300’s may or may not arrive; the reactor is nearly complete but not fully operational.  Russia has had access to, at least, a majority of the Iranian nuclear facilities.  Have they seen them all?  Intelligence gathering is a Russian art, what have they got?  Are there shadows within shadows regarding the Iranian program?  Experience would say yes, that there are parallel facilities no one knows about, even the Russians.

Russia is perfectly positioned to stick it to someone.  Geopolitically in the short term, it’s best to stick it to us, over the longer term very much less so as Russia wants access to U.S. capital.  Regionally it’s hard to see how Iran with a nuclear weapon is in Russian interests; Russians are infidels too.  Russians have horrific experience with radical Islam and radical Islam harbors no doubt about Russian response for a step over the red line. The revised Russian nuclear strategy was a message to the Middle East and Europe as well as to us. 

 

Some reports indicate that Russia had no intention of allowing Iran to get to the point of a weapon.  If true one has to believe they have a method for assuring that outcome should it become in their self interests to do so.  Russia appears to be the only nation, short of military action, that might pull it off.  China, despite it’s recalcitrance over sanctions does not maintain anywhere near Russian leverage in Iran.  The E.U. delegation failed, U.S. pressure failed, the invasion of Iraq did not slow things down, sanctions have and will fail and Arab nations are in no position to stop Iran.    

The potential blow back from the perceived need for Israel to “stop” the Iranian program is potentially a catastrophe and everyone knows it. U.S. movement away from Israel will not mitigate the “shared blame” the U.S. will suffer in the Middle East.  From the Middle Easter point of view the fact that U.S. support put Israel in the position it is in today is a permanent sin worthy of death.  Other U.S. sins include support for Egypt and Jordan.  In other words whether or not we support Israel in an attack we will be painted with the same brush.

Iranian reaction to an attack, will not be devastating but will be problematic.  Iran can activate their gulf defenses, attempt to close the Straights of Hormuz as well as unleashing Hamas, Hiz’bAllah and their international networks.  The only favorable result of an Israeli strike is the 50/50 chance of pushing the Iranian program back five or ten years.

The long term appeasement of Iran leads to predictable outcomes.  In this outcome solutions are never better or good, they are only less bad.  Which is the lesser of evils?  What concessions and “understandings” does Russia extract in return for keeping Iran off nuclear weapons and from whom?   What guarantees can be offered, have all the cockroaches been eliminated?  There is always a price tag and this will not be priced to go.

On the surface, the U.S. has more of value to offer than Iran but questions remain. Is a resurgent Russia, under strong man rule, fresh from winning the Iran game, politically positioned as hero to the civilized world, a better or worse alternative than Iran with a nuclear weapon in the short term? 

Let’s go talk to the Russians and be fully prepared to have “it” handed to us because it will be!

  • Bill Hedges

    I wholehearted agree with author when he says “broadened Russian sphere of influence.” As well as minimize other thorns in Russia’s sides.

    I’m afraid this situation is far above my pay grade. Same holds true, regrettably, for Barry, the one who gets that remuneration. Fact, dead silence for days when shooting and death of Neda Agha-Soltan happened in Iran’s 2009 election protest.

    Barry has traveled much to bow his head. Barry has made agreements some say sold America out. Maybe world bank agreement attempt to by-pass Congress. I don’t know for sure the truth or understand completely.

    I can’t see Russia’s advantage having a loose cannon like Iran having nuclear material, let alone a bomb. Forget about attached to rocket.

    Russia has trouble with both mafia as well as terrorist. With little effort from foreigners, powers that be in Iran leader could have be vanquish by Iran’s people with so little help not long ago. Seems to me a mutual benefit to us and Russia. Isn’t Iran instigator if not leader of terrorist ? Their financial backer at least ? Yet no obvious help given in riot. Except Russia has not provided the S300’s. Yet !

    I do understand Russia’s desire for instability in Mid East. Black Russian gold worth more then.

    My advise to Barry is ease long process of opening up new oil areas and nuclear plants. Areas where drilling can lead to fast productivity, like in Alaska and non-deep Gulf of Mexico (transportation pipe and facilities nearby). Allow drilling now. Exploit all this oil & gas newly discovered in America. Never forget our humongous coal reserves. As always find better economical alternative sources of energy.

    Why ? We live in a dangerous world. More so with reliance on unscrupulous/unreliable/turmoil energy lands. Lack of using all our own abundant energy reserve can draw us into sordid alliances, insecure situations, and choices.

    America is kinda like Lennie from MICE AND MEN. Obama as George (not liking his responsibilities). I wiped at ending of story. I weep for America now. Keep America from being ‘put down’ by our leader.

  • Bill Hedges

    BREAKING OBAMA STUPIDITY. Just heard on Nation’s best news… Fox News… May hear no where else…

    STUPID, STUPID, and more stupid obama. Let me repeat that. STUPID, STUPID, stupid obama.

    Let me tell you why, PLEASE:

    “Merchant Marine Act of 1920”

    “The Merchant Marine Act of 1920 (P.L. 66-261) is a United States Federal statute that regulates maritime commerce in U.S. waters and between U.S. ports.
    Section 27, also known as the Jones Act, deals with cabotage (i.e., coastal shipping) and requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried in U.S.-flag ships, constructed in the United States, owned by U.S. citizens, and crewed by U.S. citizens and U.S. permanent residents.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchant_Marine_Act_of_1920

    Liberals called Bush stupid but he gave wavier for Jones Act during Katina.

    But not obama for oil catastrophe. The smart one is dumber than BUSH. DUMBER THAN BUSH.

    Result. All the offers from around the world for ship skimmers are NOT being used in Gulf of Mexico. I alluded to this yesterday. Now got substance to FLASH now.

    Why no wavier obama ?

    I AM MAD AS HELL… This is obam’a WATERLOO… Got to be…

  • Bill Hedges

    A bull whip sound comes from breaking the sound barrier. Watching Fox news resounds with that cracking sound on obama’s Gulf stupidity. DUMBER THAN BUSH.

    BP stock crashed. 1 in 7 Brits retirement funds was affected. Was Holder prudent or simple grand standing for nightly news talking of criminal prosecution against BP?

    Can BP say obama’s fault for not cutting damages by not allowing skimmers ? obama could have wavered and allowed ? In civil trial you must cut loses if possible as I‘ve seen it.

    I think so. But not a lawyer !!!!

    Obama shamed into meeting CEO of BP. How many times he must be PUSHED to do his pay grade.

  • Bill Hedges

    June 10, 2010
    “Tea Party Member Attacked”
    “Man punches Tea Party member during protests in North Carolina”

    http://video.foxnews.com/v/4234106/tea-party-member-attacked/?playlist_id=87249