Gallup: GOP moves ahead of Dems on Congressional ballot

The good news is that American people seem to be rallying against ObamaCare and they plan to do so at the voting booth. The bad news, however, is that this is Gallup we’re talking about. However, the rest of the good news is that Gallup is now the latest in a line of polling outfits to find Republicans winning the vote on a generic congressional ballot.

Organizations such as Rasmussen have had this trend for months now but what makes this Gallup poll significant is that it is of registered voters, not the usual likely voters we’ve seen in the Rasmussen generic congressional ballot polls. This is significant since often polls which use registered voters (i.e. people registered to vote though they may not actually vote) usually trend toward Democratic candidates. Models using likely voters (i.e. voters who are registered and will actually show up at the polls) tend to be more favorable for Republicans.

The release from Gallup:

PRINCETON, NJ — Registered voters now say they prefer the Republican to the Democratic candidate in their district by 47% to 44% in the midterm congressional elections, the first time the GOP has led in 2010 election preferences since Gallup began weekly tracking of these in March.

The March 22-28 results were obtained after the U.S. House’s passage of landmark healthcare reform legislation on March 21. The shift toward Republicans raises the possibility that the healthcare bill had a slightly negative impact on the Democrats’ political fortunes in the short run.

A separate USA Today/Gallup poll conducted March 26-28 showed a similar result, with Republicans ahead by 46% to 45%.

These results suggest the Republicans would have a strong showing if the midterm elections were held today. Since Republicans usually vote at higher rates than Democrats, the Republicans’ edge in voter preferences would likely exceed what the registered voter results indicate.

The last line speaks to what I explained above, that Republicans winning amongst registered voters doesn’t bode well for Democrats come November.

I know, it’s a couple polls and we’re months away. However, I believe it is important to point this out since it flies in the face of Democrat claims that the American people will “grow to love” this bill once it is passed.

Here’s the chart from the past several weeks:

Not a good trend for Democratic candidates looking for reelection.

  • JD

    Alright here is a question for you guys. I know there have been teams of political talking heads pooring over all the possible possibilitys but I have been wondering about this since the Republicans or conservatives have reunited.

    What are your thoughts on the chances of two different “republican” candidates going to war with each other?

    I guess I am thinking along the lines of lets say a tea party member is running against another republican as a republican or independent…

    Do you think this will be much of an issue?

    I have seen in a few elections right now where GOPers are battling with each other and could split the votes at the polls resulting in a possible Dem winning only because he or she wasn’t sharing the votes with another candidate.

  • I think your answer to that is Scott Brown. He is a “Massachusetts Republican,” not the most conservative candidate that could have run. However, he had massive tea party and conservative support.

    Obviously locations and races will vary but I think the notion of a “purist” party has been put aside, for the most part, in order to restore fiscal restraint.

    This is what primaries are for in my opinion. It is healthy for candidates to compete and weak candidates to be weeded out. At the end of the day, I believe all factions of the GOP will unite because ultimately a divided party will fail.

    A third-party “tea party” candidate is nothing more splitting the GOP vote and guaranteeing a Democrat victory.

  • D.D.Mao

    Bill…….It must be an PRE-EXISTING CONDITION OF JD’S TO PLAGARIZE.THE POST HE SUPPOSEDLY WROTE on the 30TH OF MARCH @6:45 on the thread entitled “Just a Matter Of Time” was from a speech given by ROBERT F. KENNEDY ON 5TH OF APRIL 1968 AT THE CLEVELAND CITY CLUB.The quote starts “When you teach a man to hate and fear his brother……” and was so good it got a COMPLIMENT FROM LANDREAUX ON THE 31ST OF MARCH.I WONDER IF THIS PRE-EXISTING CONDITION IS COVERED UNDER HIS PRESIDENTS HEALTH PLAN?

  • JD

    DDM… I am shocked!! I thought the quotes around that segment of my reply indicated a “quote”. I mean the ” symble does mean quote and is named quotation.

    I am really impressed with your deduction skills, Watson. You should open up a P.I. service and hunt the web for people who quote using quotation marks and call them out for plagerizing.

    I can’t believe I helped you find your new career!!! You don’t have to thank me, I already know you do.

  • Bill Hedges

    JD

    “SHOCKED” !! You never noticed all the links associated with quotes on this site ? You should have remembered from time I caught you stealing words without quotes nor link.

    DDMao

    Like you I knew that. I looked it up. It was related to race I am sure. At least he used quotes, for that we must be thankful. Maybe JD does not know we know how to check, however, is his job to provide link.

    The other case he changed a few words to make it his own and no quotes used.

    JD has no right to insult anyone, his behavior is despicable !

    “Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones”

    For JD’s benefit, the meaning:

    “Do not criticize or slander another if you are vulnerable to retaliation.”

    http://www.answers.com/topic/those-who-live-in-glass-houses-shouldn-t-throw-stones

  • JD

    Bill, who said I live in a glass house? I knocked out all the glass years ago. I am more of an open book.

    You two are just upset because I am the wet finger that turns your pages.

    Also, the RFK speech was about violence… interesting that your mind went to race though.

  • Bill Hedges

    JD

    From the link you did not provide:

    “When you teach a man to hate and fear his brother, when you teach that he is a lesser man because of his color or his beliefs.”

    “because of his color”

    You will notice what I said above:

    “It was related to race I am sure.”

    I enjoy showing you for what you are. You make-up things and steal other people’s words with/without quote marks and without links..

  • JD

    All you did was show how narrow minded you are. Like it says… Color or beliefs or policies.

    Do i need to school you in what the word “or” means? For example some people are violent because they are racist or maybe they aren’t but they are violent because they don’t like you as a christian.

    Do you see where the “or” comes in? It was no more about race then it was about regilion “or” political views. The point was outside those issues and about the common denominator of violence.

    Again, like the ink blot test, it is interesting your mind went there and has decided to defend it. By no means should you stop. You are painting yourself in a great light.

  • Bill Hedges

    JD

    You and your little buddy are making fools of yourselves while entertaining each other.

    “Or” means either. “color” being one.

  • Bill Hedges

    DDMao

    I don’t know about you but I will no longer respond to Kendale or JD.

    Use of vulgar term “teabagger” is unacceptable. Video chip having that as theme as well. Without appropriate apology.

    This other behavor needs to change as well. This is adult site.

  • D.D.Mao

    JD ……..You are such a lying bag of shit! Just because you have quotes on something DOESN’T MEAN YOU ARE QUOTEING THEM UNLESS YOU GIVE CREDIT TO WHO SAID IT.NOWHERE DID YOU MENTION SEN. KENNEDY NOR AFTER LANDREAUX SAID HOW “BEAUTIFUL” IT WAS ALL YOU HAD TO SAY WAS “THANK YOU”.We have ONE MEMBER WHO DOESN’T BELIEVE IN READING LINKS FOR PROOF OF FACTS AND ANOTHER WHO PLAGIARIZES FOR FACTS

    NOW FOR THE REASON IT WAS SAID. You are both right and you are both to young to remember this but APRIL 5th 1968 WAS THE DAY DR.MARTIN LUTHER KING WAS SHOT.

  • “JD ……..You are such a lying bag of shit!” – DDMao

    So bill, will you respond and say that DDMao is using inappropriate words on the site?

    My clip was Adult content as you stated this is an Adult site. And it did talk about your teabagger group that you seem to be so proud of. It also addressed the Health Care issue. It talked about “English Lesson” as you threw at JD. It even used the use of quotations as you want JD to use. But you not responding to me ever again, what a dream come true. I’d been praying for that for a long time now. Allahu Akbar.

  • D.D.Mao

    JD……….YOUR THE WET FINGER ALRIGHT BUT IT ISN’T USED TO TURN PAGES BUT GIVE A COLONOSCOPY !

  • Oh now he is making references to fingering the rectum of other people. How “vulgar” is that? HaHa

  • Fox News? Your Favorite!

    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,590345,00.html

    “Conservative Leader Tells People to Stop Giving Money to the GOP”

    Is it republicans or conservatives that are all “hot and bothered” now a days? Well I hope they don’t start ALL giving each other prostate exams like DDMao is pushing for.

  • http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/04/01/tea-partiers-draft-contract-america-tackle-countrys-problems/

    “Tea Partiers Draft ‘Contract From America’ to Tackle Country’s Problems”

    “The Tea Party Movement will unveil the full “Contract from America” on April 15, Tax Day. But on Thursday, Tea Partiers released the top three planks of the platform, which were determined by an online vote.

    The top priority, chosen by 80.7 percent of respondents, is to protect the Constitution. This would require each bill to identify the specific provision of the Constitution that gives Congress the power to do what the bill does.

    The second priority, selected by 70.8 percent, is to reject President Obama’s climate change legislation, otherwise known as “cap and trade.”

    The third priority is demand a balanced budget – chosen by 69.9 percent. This calls for starting a constitutional amendment process to require a balanced budget with a two-thirds majority needed for any tax hike.”

    I’m all for the balanced budget. I want to see how they balance the money that is thrown at the various wars we’ve got going on. War does seem to be a big money blower during the presidential reigns of Republicans.

  • http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0401/Republican-phone-sex-scandal-fundraising-challenge-add-to-RNC-woes

    “Republican phone sex scandal, fundraising challenge add to RNC woes”

    “The Republican phone sex scandal ensued after that RNC directed potential donors to the wrong number. Meanwhile, a conservative leader told his followers to stop giving to the RNC, and a competing organization is raising money for GOP candidates.”

    Tough Luck

  • http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/02/us/politics/02obama.html

    “Obama Challenges Republicans on Health Care”

    “But even before Air Force One had touched down in nearby Portsmouth, the Republican National Committee sent reporters an e-mail message calling Mr. Obama an “Anti-job Maine-iac” and dismissing his assertion that the health care program will help small businesses as “just a bad April Fools’ joke.”

    The message went on to ask: “Why aren’t Maine’s job creators fooled by Obama’s rhetoric?” and cited news reports quoting business owners in the state expressing concern about the new law’s mandates and tax increases.

    Outside the center, protesters made clear their point of view as well with signs like “Marxist in Chief,” “Get Govt Out of Our Private Lives” and “Dump Socialism.”

    With supporters inside chanting his 2008 slogan, “Yes, we can,” Mr. Obama’s campaign-style rally here was to be followed by a pair of campaign fund-raisers in Boston later in the day. The selection of these two New England states put the president right in the face of Republican senators from a more liberal part of the country. ”

    Go For It!

  • http://www.godhatesamerica.com/

    Wow that is disturbing

    I am watching this on The O’Reilly Factor right now

  • JD

    Can’t stop laughing at Bill and DDM. Seriously.

    Anyway… because it is such a good speech, I will post it up here. Please pay attention to the title of it.

    “On the Mindless Menace of Violence”

    http://rfkmemorial.mediathree.net/lifevision/onthemindlessmenaceofviolence/

    I will also post this one because it is just as relevant today as it was in the 60’s.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77IdKFqXbUY&feature=player_embedded

    “Gross National Product counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them. It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. . . .

    Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country.

    It measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. And it can tell us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.” – RFK

  • Bill Hedges

    DDMao

    We have two childish adults on this site here for entertainment. Logic and reason doesn’t work with these two. From the stolen words with no quotes nor link, now they are using.

    No apologies nor shame for what we have pointed out but lack of decorum and attempts to humiliate us.

    The last straw is using TEA BAGGERS and link of comedian making T jokes.

    The left wing site I go to had author who used that word. We complained and it was stopped. Comments using T will also be removed if reported.

    I like this site but the two are unapologetic for their statements on coffin, use of ‘T’ word and making senseless fun of us. Awhile back jd’s plagiarism plus his latest one with quotes but no link which he shows no remorse for. Instead he makes fun.

    This kind of behavior does not look enticing to future commenter’s. We have had some writing on here lately. One time. Who thinks they want to listen to those two. I’m tied and feed-up with it.

    They are unremorseful for their action. To the contrary.

  • So DDMao is allowed to use profane language and say that JD sticks his fingers up someones butt? And JD and I are not allowed to post links and quotations? You’re a hypocrite. Get over it. You’re truly full of it. I don’t mean that in any other way that as a fact!