As the winds of “change” blow in with 2010, hopes for a Republican reclamation of the House are growing ever higher and Democratic strategists are beginning to take notice. The Huffington Post, of all places, is sounding the alarm that 2010 will not be a good year for Democrat incumbents.
Here’s the story:
Democratic incumbents face the most threatening political environment since the Republican landslide of 1994 — and they know it.
The trends are all moving in the wrong direction. Voters are shifting to the right; white antipathy to the President has intensified; the popular consensus backing Obama and his agenda has collapsed in less than a year; and a growing number of center-conservative House Democrats are jumping ship. It’s not that voters are suddenly becoming big fans of the Republican Party — its poll numbers are falling just as rapidly as the Democrats’ — but political scientists and strategists from across the spectrum agree that simply by virtue of being the opposition, the GOP is positioned to make large gains on November 2. There’s even an outside chance they’ll wrest back control of the House.
Most recently, the failed Christmas day bombing by an alleged Al Qaeda operative of a flight to Detroit has spurred Republicans to revive the national security fears that served them so well in the 2002 and 2004 elections.
“If the election were held today, we’d lose the House,” says Democratic campaign consultant Tom King, a view shared, off the record, by a number of his colleagues.
That’s a very strong statement to say Democrats would lose the house if the election happened today. One can only wonder if this is truly what Tom King believes or if he is attempting a “wake up call” to congressional Democrats and liberal activists before it is too late for them.