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Iran proudly raised the diplomatic and political equivalent of a middle finger to any and all who question their right to do just exactly as they damn well please. On the heels of the recent IAEA report where the IAEA, finally, got around to recognizing the scope of the Iranian program and the reports’ acceptance by the IAEA Board Iran responded by announcing a vast expansion of their program. For those who follow closely, this was no surprise.
The Iranian message is very simple and very consistent; it’s the same message they’ve delivered in a variety of manifestations for years; NO! No, we do not recognize your authority over us, No, we will not accept your limitations, No, and there will be no cessation. These are, if you’ve forgotten, the same folks who after years of European diplomacy insulted the Europeans publically by thanking them for the five extra stress free years to accelerate progress with their nuclear program. Iran has been consistently belligerent, non compliant, evasive and smarter by half than the folks across the table as they moved toward their goal of weaponization. Wednesday’s announcement by President Ahmadinejad that 20% enriched uranium was close at hand is another case in point and a significant benchmark.
Iran sees nothing in recent history that would motivate them to alter their course at this point in time. Iranian leadership believes fully in the justifications for their behaviors.
Iran has had its way with Russia, China, the entire European Union, the U.N. the IAEA, two U.S. administrations and a fair portion of the 3rd world. They, without question, viewed the manner of America’s policy of engagement as weakness, if there is anything that the Iranians have experience with over the past six years it’s identifying and dealing with weakness, in the person of our European allies and the IAEA.
Russia, as well, has raised the political middle finger demonstrated by four agreements signed the day after the IAEA report. The deal included cooperation agreements dealing with oil, natural gas and telecommunications; the presence of Russian nuclear scientists in Iran in ongoing. The signals from Russia are clear, meaningless votes for IAEA resolutions not withstanding! Same goes for China as a recently announced project to develop Iranian petroleum refining represents a significant economic partnership. Same signal! In the final analysis, don’t count on any support from Russia and China; it is in both of their interests to see the U.S. and E.U. being pushed into a dangerous corner.
Iran has for years, prepared for sanctions and worse. Iran has made deals for refined petroleum with Venezuela, solidified economic relationships with Russia and China, procured weapons and missiles from North Korea and aligned with nearly every anti U.S. regime they could find, including those in our own hemisphere. Iranian support for Hiz’bAllah, Hamas and a variety of terror organizations has created a retaliatory potential that demands attention and could provide for ongoing intimidation of Western powers.
Iran is saying, NO! This is your reality check, time to wake up, NO means NO! There will be NO meaningful engagement, NO effective diplomacy, NO backing down and NO deals!
What is Iran counting on? They are counting on their own population to continue to take pride in the nuclear program, absent, in all likelihood, any popular information related to the potential consequences. They are counting on European pacifism to dominate valid security concerns. They are counting on the threat of terrorism from surrogates to cower regional and European opponents. They are counting on Europe to continue to live in fear of their own Muslim populations. They are counting on the growing tide of thought that argues the world can “live with” a nuclear Iran as the ultimate point of appeasement. They are, most importantly, counting on the U.S. to do nothing beyond feckless engagement and to possibly serve as a roadblock to the promised potential of an Israeli strike.
Now that Iran has staked out its most aggressive position yet, they will likely send some manner of signal that there might be a little something to talk about after all; that has been the pattern for some time. Each time Iran has suggested some level of engagement the allies have dropped their pants and ankle danced over the Tehran armed with little more than hope, lots of carrots, no sticks and continuing confidence in the magic Unicorn of diplomatic engagement as the solution to a rogue regime!
The great hope expressed for progress based on the meetings in Geneva came to nothing, as predicted in this space. In the Iranian view, as long as the U.S. can be drawn into a hope against hope diplomatic engagement, Israel will hold their military water.
It’s all about time, a reasonable prediction can be taken that Iran does not need a lot more time. If Iran needed considerably more time they simply would not have made the announcement they made or taken the position they took last week.
NO means NO!
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The resolve or back bone of obama has been tested. World knows him well. The murders in Iran was meet with silence, sealed obama’s fate.
To para-phase: I know G.W. Bush, obama is no G.W. Bush.
The ‘bow head’ lost his credibility.
Appeasement obama, another Arthur Neville Chamberlain.
In a video session, Russian big shots refused to shake hands with obama while Russia’s leader stood there. How amusing for him.
How respected America isn’t.
Bill,
It’s worse than that, regarding the respect thing. Take a look at recent Pew Polls on attitudes toward America. In some cases it is worse now than under GW.
Sorry Bill, but I think you’re seeing what you were “told” to see on the youtube page. If you look at the section in this fox story http://is.gd/1yRHn starting at about where there are 2:10 left, you’ll see a snippet from earlier in the line where, while you can’t see his hands, you can tell that Obama is shaking hands with people earlier in the line.
Then, it skips to a point where Obama is introducing Medvedev to a man in uniform, who I blieve is chairman of the joint chiefs Michael Mullen, and continues down the line with introductions, as Medvedev shakes their hands. It’s pretty clear to me that at the start of the line are members of the Russian delegation, to whom Obama is introduced, followed by members of the American delegation, who Obama is introducing to Medvedev.
If you need confirmation that the military gentleman being introduced to Medvedev is in fact American, check this cnn story which shows the him signing the agreements for the US delegation, at about :36 in. http://is.gd/1yRWG
There are other legitimate instances such as his address to congress where Obama is called a lier to show people snubbing him but I don’t think this is one of those occasions.
And I would hate to see conservatives fall into the absurd liberal spin cycle that the Bush Derangement Syndrom sufferers subjected us to. I’d hope we Americans are better than that on both sides but as usual it isn’t news; its entertainment.
Just out of curiosity… what is your recommendation as a solution? Invasion, sanctions, or something else?
Landreaux,
I refuse to show any respect to the flem flam man. I hate to degrade that term. The movie showed man that lived by his wits. Obama could not survive, he had Rev. Wright, Bill Ayres, and that other preacher who I can’t think of his name. I’m sure you know it.
GW warned about economic collapse in 95 and his support to Wall Street was a necessary evil. Is why market went up (not obama’s doing).
The TARP money which was to be paid back and used to lower National Debt, is being spent by obama instead.
GW was disliked from moment he won his second term. I was living in a small college town at the time. They were on street corners with signs.
If funny considering what Gore called indisputable evidence of global warming, is neither indisputable evidence nor honest. Gore is one these protesters wanted for president. I call that ironic.
From Teddy Kennedy, Al Gore, to obama; liberals are dry humping America. Transparent government is a farce. Power of presidency could not get Olympics to come to Chicago. Even the baby Great Panda is leaving and going to China. Heck I blame obama.
Watch obama stop the drones in Afgan. In 80 bombs dropped 400 enemies where killed. Because 20 innocents died watch it be stopped. Our men would not be allowed such results under his Rules of Engagements.
We have men facing charges of hitting a terrorist in face and stomach. I suppose they should have killed the guy or kissed him.
I disdain obama. To the point of hysteria.
Obama is hugging people because unemployment dropped from 10.2 to 10. He takes credit. We have a mad man in the White House. I’m going nuts listening to him. Thank goodness I have Fox news to make me sane again.
JD
No hand shaking as I said:
http://www.ihatethemedia......e-his-hand
JD
Now prove your:
” Bush Derangement Syndrom sufferers subjected us to.”
JD
You need to re-read my comment about hand shaking, you will not find that I said all refused to shake hands. I did not say that or imply.
Here is my quote which you used:
“In a video session, Russian big shots refused to shake hands with obama while Russia’s leader stood there.”
Your point is mute. I am correct in what I said.
Jumpng to conclusions can make you miss the target. And draw wrong conclusions.
JD
Prove your point now:
” Bush Derangement Syndrom sufferers subjected us to.”
Can hardly wait !!!!!!!!!!
You was not doing water sports in the wind was you ? You can back what you say ???
Nate and Landreaux
Compare this to what JD wrote:
Something fishy in Demark ???
“Plagiarism, as defined in the 1995 Random House Compact Unabridged Dictionary, is the “use or close imitation of the language and thoughts of another author” …
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plagiarism
“ScottK July 14, 2009, 2:43 pm at 2:43 pm
Sorry, but I think you’re seeing what you were “told” to see on the youtube page. If you look at the section in this fox story http://is.gd/1yRHn starting at about where there are 2:10 left, you’ll see a snippet from earlier in the line where, while you can’t see his hands, you can tell that Obama is shaking hands with people earlier in the line. Then, it skips to a point where Obama is introducing Medvedev to a man in uniform, who I blieve is chairman of the joint chiefs Michael Mullen, and continues down the line with introductions, as Medvedev shakes their hands. It’s pretty clear to me that at the start of the line are members of the Russian delegation, to whom Obama is introduced, followed by members of the American delegation, who Obama is introducing to Medvedev. If you need confirmation that the military gentleman being introduced to Medvedev is in fact American, check this cnn story which shows the him signing the agreements for the US delegation, at about :36 in. http://is.gd/1yRWG”
http://www.ihatethemedia......e-his-hand
From the above link.
“I’m happy to see Obama shown for the fool he is, and there are plenty of legitimate instances to do that. But I don’t think this is one of those occasions. And I don’t want to see conservatives fall into the absurd liberal spin cycle that the Bush Derangement Syndrom sufferers subjected us to. It made them look like blithering idiots – I’d hope we’re better than that.”
Why did JD leave out:
“I’m happy to see Obama shown for the fool he is”
JD,
Sorry for the delay, the question was what would I recommend. Well, long before I began to contribute to You Decide the Iran issue has been a source of continual focus for me.
The problem now is that there are NO good options. The reason for no good options is six years of apeasement by us. I would love to see strong sanctions put in place, yesterday. The time for the strong sanctions would have been two years ago, we had enough information in hand at that point in time to justify it. However, the “idea” of sanctions is trumped by the “reality” that Russia and China as well as nations such as Venezuela will not go along with any sanctions regime that would have the potential to actually impact the Iranian situation sufficient to generate a change in Iranian attitudes and policies.
The only thing worse than striking Iran would be Iran with a nuclear weapon which, they may already have.
You also have to engage the context of the failed negotiations. GW was constantly accused of unilateral actions, this was not the case with Iran. Europe, confident in their superior diplomatic skills and “understanding” of the region got GW to agree to let them handle it. All of the jokes about the European tendency to appeasement was not, in this case, very funny. As late as this summer the head of the EU diplomatic effort Mr. Soldana was expressing confidence that resolution was near at hand. The fact is the EU and by extension us, was played and played beautifully from the Iranian point of view.
To answer your question specifically the best possible solution is an alliance between the U.S., Israel and at least two European powers committed to strike Iran. The downside of just Israel or just the U.S. and Israel striking Iran is considerable.
The strike on Iran, should it happen, does not even have to be a strike at nuclear facilities as a threshold strategy. It could be aimed at decapitating the leadership. The benefit would be a leadership void that at least a portion of the Iranian people would accept as an end to the current regime and the repressions that are endemic to their rule.
JD, if you take a close look at Iranian behaviors both at home and abroad I believe you have to come to the conclusion that these are bad guys. If you look at the actuality of their behaviors and project those behaviors into a nuclear world it is difficult to come up with a scenario that ends well.
JD
When you steal another man’s words trying to make me look bad, at least steal indisbutable evience. prevous statements to stolen comment:
“ScottK July 14, 2009, 12:01 pm at 12:01 pm
Uh, I’m a big fan, but I think you’re reaching way beyond reality on this one. It looks pretty clear here that he is not reaching out to shake hands with the people in question, but he is introducing Medvedev (I assume that’s who’s walking next to him) to each of the people in the line. You can see by the possitioning of his hand – when you’re gesturing towards someone, you’re hand will tend to be angled upwards, as the messiah’s is; when you are reaching out to shake hands, your hand tends to be tilted a little more towards the floor, as Medvedev’s is. As far as him looking pissed, that’s just the messiah’s normal dour expression, when he’s not posturing for the teleprompter.”
“Reply”
2
“Administrator July 14, 2009, 12:14 pm at 12:14 pm
Absolutely not. He ends up doing that after he realizes that no one wants to shake his hand. Smart move to make it look that way after a few handshake attempts. And you can also see the exasperation and the quick drop of the hand after the third attempt. That’s when he realized he had to try something else.”
I am going to assume Administrator has been doing his job a long time and would have up-dated if need be.. You ignored this part and took later statement to try to discrdit me. Ends up you showed your true colors. Am honored you must use deceit to try and persoal defeat my comments. Sad. Very sad in deed Jd (just dirty).
Bill, I don’t really want to talk to you about this…I’ll let a picture from the same video speak for me. Please read the caption. It repeats that the men who “weren’t shaking Obama’s hand” were US Reps. So I put it to you again, He wasn’t reaching out for a handshake but was introducing the Russian president.
http://www.daylife.com/ph.....afti8QY3In
There is no doubt the US can not just do a joint attack with Israel as our only Ally. It would do great harm to the stability of the area if that were to happen. Primarily because the tension between Israel and the other middle eastern countries is a religious one.
however, it is hard to convince Russia to get on board 100% when China is going through the back door. It would be like asking McDonalds to stop employing illegal immigrants while jack in the box continues to make a buck doing it. It isn’t that McDonald wouldn’t like to but they see it as if they don’t do business then someone else will.
Until we can stop the problem of “someone else will” then we will always have this situation.
I also wonder if there is still tension with Russia on the ideal of international trading. I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia took a more US point of view if we and the EU were to accept them more openly economically. Take China as an example…Communist, however, most everything in America is made there.
I could see this going both ways. It would have to be an effective and deep strike on the leadership and I only see this as possible with an invasion. Invasions tend to lead to occupation and occupation costs a lot of money.
Really, it just comes down to the situation the US is in. The US as a whole is a reflection of the average US citizen who would love to do the right thing and pay cash for a car but because we have turned from a proactive traditional economy to a reactive progressive economy we are stuck making hard decisions which have no good solutions.
Personally, it think we need to get back to a more traditional economy which encouraged people and the economy to grow in what we have and not chase what we don’t. This would free us up and make more easy issues like Iran and humanitarian goals.
Plagiarist get huffy. My my
“What Kind of Plagiarist Is Joe Biden?The unusually creepy kind.”
By Jack ShaferPosted Monday, Aug. 25, 2008, at 6:46 PM ET
http://www.slate.com/id/2198597/