McDonnell leads in VA, New Jersey tied, NY-23 too close

Here’s a snapshot of the major Election 2009 races which will be decided next Tuesday on November 3rd. We’ll take each race one-by-one and see where it stands as of now.

First and foremost, lets jump into the special election for New York’s 23rd congressional seat. This is the seat vacated since Republican John M. McHugh resigned on September 21, 2009 to become United States Secretary of the Army. Thus, a special election will occur next Tuesday to fill the seat and choose his successor.

Here is a snapshot of the latest polls from NY-23:

As you can see, if you believe the Minuteman and GFG poll, Hoffman leads by around 4 or 5 points. Hoffman is the Conservative Party candidate for this seat and has basically come out of nowhere to be a real contender. I am not so sure how this is going to play-out but polls in the next few days may give us a better idea. You can read more about the Conservative Party of New York on their Wikipedia page.

Here’s the latest on Doug Hoffman’s rise in the NY-23 race from USAToday:

The list of high-profile Republicans supporting Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the 23rd Congressional District in New York keeps getting longer.

The latest: former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, a one-time presidential candidate, and Ex-Rep. Tom Cole, the former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

As we’ve reported, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former House Majority Leader Dick Armey and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty are among those Hoffman over Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava.

Thompson cut a TV ad for Hoffman,and Cole put out a statement of support.

“Due to the vagaries of local politics two Republicans are on the ballot in the special election in NY-23,” Cole said, adding that Hoffman is “the only Republican who can win this special election.”

This will be a fascinating one to watch and I am eagerly awaiting some new polling from, perhaps, some more established polling firms like Rasmussen.


New Jersey is shaping up to be a down-to-the-wire kind of race. Here’s the latest snapshot of polls:

It is a virtual dead heat. The amazing part is how Jon Corzine is so ridiculously unpopular that even with Chris Daggett pealing off some votes, Christie maintains a statistical tie right now.

Latest from the Philly Enquirer:

With one week to go until Election Day, Democratic Gov. Corzine is bringing back the national star power, Republican Christopher J. Christie is planning to get on the air, and independent Chris Daggett is firing up the tour bus.

“We intend to close the deal this week,” Christie said in a radio interview yesterday, summing up what may be the attitude for all three campaigns.

Corzine is counting on visits today by former President Bill Clinton and on Sunday by President Obama, who will be in Camden at 1:20 p.m., to help put him over the top in a tight campaign.

Christie’s campaign has promised its biggest ad buy of the race and a tour of the state’s 21 counties.

Daggett, who is planning to start a statewide tour Friday in Camden and Burlington Counties, yesterday cast himself as the only realistic alternative to Corzine, telling the Associated Press: “It’s either going to be Jon Corzine or me.”

The comment was a slap at Christie, who led in polls of prospective voters through the summer but slipped as Corzine deluged the media with questions about the Republicans’ values and ethics.

Christie told WCBS-AM in New York City that his campaign was “in very, very good position” despite being hammered by attack ads.

Daggett has gained ground on Christie and Corzine but trails both by significant margins in public-opinion polls.

Both Christie and Corzine, the only governor seeking reelection this year in the midst of the national recession, spent much of yesterday doing cable-television and radio interviews.

Corzine continued to play up his ties to Obama.

“It’s very helpful that a popular president believes that I can be a better partner with him than the other candidates in the race,” Corzine said in a morning appearance on Fox 5 in New York.

On Saturday, the governor’s campaign launched four television ads, including one of Obama speaking directly to the camera in English and Spanish, urging voters to support his fellow Democrat. Urban and minority voters make up a key part of the party’s base in the state.

The president’s visit this weekend will be Obama’s third trip to New Jersey on Corzine’s behalf.

I’m thinking that Christie still has a real chance to turn New Jersey red come next Tuesday. It will all hinge on how much Daggett truly has when voters enter the booth.


Finally, the Old Dominion of Virginia where Republican Bob McDonnell leads by a substantial margin. Here’s the latest with very, very bad news for Democrat Creigh Deeds:

McDonnell is running away with the polls in Virginia and President Obama’s campaigning for Creigh Deeds hasn’t helped at all, which says quite a bit at this point and time.

Report from the AP:

PURCELLVILLE, Va. — Just a year after this one-time Confederate state helped elect a black man president, Democrats are desperately trying to hang onto the governorship.

A lot has changed: Loyal Democrats are more subdued than last fall. Republicans are energized. Independents are proving to be … independent. Voters of all kinds seem disenchanted.

Just like Americans nationwide.

The contest between Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat R. Creigh Deeds provides a snapshot of sorts — 12 months after America elected Barack Obama as president and expanded Democratic majorities in Congress, and one year before midterm elections in every state.

And the picture, in Virginia as in the nation, is not pretty for Democrats.

McDonnell is in good shape next Tuesday.

We’ll continue watching these races for the next 7 days as we get down the Election Day on Tuesday, November 3rd.

  • Bill Hedges

    “Obama considering scaled-down Afghan war plan”

    By ANNE GEARAN and MATTHEW LEE, Associated Press Writers Anne Gearan And Matthew Lee, Associated Press Writers – 44 mins ago

    WASHINGTON – “President Barack Obama is considering a scaled-down version of the war plan advanced by his top Afghanistan commander, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, U.S. officials say.”

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091029/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_us_afghanistan