Dem pollster predicts landslide, NY Times cautions

An interesting web to weave today between a Democratic pollster, who believes a landslide election is coming in November, and the New York Times which has a piece out today examining just how close the race really is and just how easily McCain could pull off a victory on November 4th.

First, report on the “earthquake” landslide prediction from Yahoo News:

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said Friday that his party is in position for “an earthquake election” come Nov. 4.

“Nothing is going to look the same,” Greenberg said, joined by Democratic strategist James Carville at a breakfast with reporters hosted by The Christian Science Monitor.

Carville likened the Washington political environment to pre-Hurricane Katrina New Orleans, saying that “there will be nothing left standing” after the election. He added that Republicans stand to lose “not just an election but a generation of voters.”

“McCain and Palin are losing the argument,” Greenberg said, pointing to favorable numbers for Obama on the campaign’s central issue, the economy.

“They are losing on their central arguments,” the pollster said of the Republican’s focus on tax cuts. “They can’t see that what they take for granted loses them independents.”

Greenberg said the GOP has not adjusted to a changed electorate and is running toward a base that no longer has the numbers it once had.

“Republicans want McCain to keep running to the right,” he said. “This is a new map.”

That’s a pretty dark prediction for McCain’s chances and the GOP in general, however, the Times see things a little differently:

MIAMI — Senator John McCain woke Thursday morning to what has become a fairly common greeting in these tough last weeks of his campaign. A raft of polls showing him well behind. Early post-mortems on his candidacy. Even Republicans speaking of him in the past tense.

But is it really over?

As Mr. McCain enters this closing stretch, his aides — as well as some outside Republicans and even a few Democrats — argue that he still has a viable path to victory.

“The McCain campaign is roughly in the position where Vice President Gore was running against President Bush one week before the election of 2000,” said Steve Schmidt, Mr. McCain’s chief strategist. “We have ground to make up, but we believe we can make it up.”

The latest New York Times/CBS News poll, released Thursday, showed Senator Barack Obama consolidating his lead over Mr. McCain among many groups of voters, underscoring the degree of difficulty facing the McCain team with just 11 days left in the campaign.

Even the most hearty of the McCain supporters acknowledge that it will not be easy, and there are a considerable number of Republicans who say, off the record, that the 2008 cake is baked. At this point in the campaign, Mr. McCain’s hopes of victory may rest on events over which he simply does not have control.

Still, there do seem to be enough question marks hovering over this race that it is not quite time for Mr. McCain to ride his bus back to Arizona.

There are a few things the Times cites as benefiting McCain:

States

Mr. McCain’s advisers said the key to victory was reeling back those Republican states where Mr. Obama has them on the run: Florida, where Mr. McCain spent Thursday; Indiana; Missouri; North Carolina; Ohio; and Virginia. If he can hang on to all those states as well as others that are reliably red, he would put into his column 260 of the 270 electoral votes necessary to win. Mr. McCain’s advisers said they would look for the additional electoral votes they need either by taking Pennsylvania from the Democrats, or putting together some combination of Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Mr. McCain’s advisers are most concerned about Virginia, and understandably so. On the other side of the coin, Mr. McCain’s advisers believe that if he wins or comes close in Pennsylvania, he will probably win in Ohio and Florida. Aides to Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama agree that Mr. McCain remains very much in the game in Ohio and Florida. Not easy, but not impossible either.

This is what it really comes down to. If any of these swing states break for Obama, the party will soon come to an end for the McCain camp as it would be nearly impossible to win.

Issues

Two issues have turned up in the final days, courtesy of some inopportune remarks by Mr. Obama and his running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware. Both have entered the campaign dialogue, and it is probably a little too early to tell whether they will have the impact that Mr. McCain hopes they will.

The first was Mr. Obama’s response to the plumber in Ohio who asked about his proposal to increase income tax rates on households making over $250,000 a year, in which Mr. Obama asserted that there was a need to “spread the wealth.” Mr. McCain seized on the response to reprise the he-will-raise-your-taxes attack that has historically had resonance in states like Florida, Iowa and New Hampshire. “We believe we have traction with the tax issue,” said Charlie Black, a senior adviser to Mr. McCain.

It was no coincidence that Mr. Obama spent about 10 minutes rebutting the notion that he would raise taxes on the middle class at a rally here in Florida on Tuesday. Advisers to Mr. Obama are carefully watching state polling and focus groups in Florida, Ohio and Virginia, where Mr. McCain is waging a vigorous push on this issue.

The other was Mr. Biden’s prediction that a foreign power would test Mr. Obama with a crisis in the first months of his presidency. That remark goes to what has been the heart of Mr. McCain’s argument about the need for the next president to have experience in handling high-stakes situations. No one in Mr. Obama’s campaign is disputing the potential damage from Mr. Biden’s remark, but they hope it will be offset by the endorsement of Mr. Obama by Colin L. Powell, the former secretary of state, on Sunday.

Biden’s statement, even if it’s correct, wasn’t a very bright comment to make. Had Palin made the same comment, she would unquestionably be ridiculed for it. Obama’s “spread the wealth” comment was destined for TV ad fodder and is the new catch phrase the McCain campaign has been employing around the country.

Polls

Pollsters say there has never been a year when polling has been so problematic, given the uncertainty of who is going to vote in what is shaping up as an electorate larger than ever. While most national polls give Mr. Obama a relatively comfortable lead, in many statewide polls, Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are much more closely matched. Even a small shift in the national number could deliver some of the closer states into the McCain camp, making an Electoral College victory at least possible.

“The next 13 days will tell the story,” said Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, pointing to recent polls showing Mr. McCain gaining in his state. “I’m optimistic. I think he’s going to take Florida.”

The other question is whether there is a hidden resistance among whites to casting a ballot for an African-American. That could potentially be a problem for Mr. Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Mr. Obama’s advisers argued that race had already been factored into polls; but it was notable that the Times/CBS News poll found that one-third of voters said they knew someone who would not vote for Mr. Obama because he is black. That is a question formulation pollsters use to try to get at prejudice that a voter might not otherwise own up to.

I think the polls are completely unpredictable. I can’t explain the discrepancy between a 1 point lead and a 14 point lead other than to examine the sample size, which often tells the story. Some pollsters are trying to factor in “new” voters while others are sticking with traditional methods. I’ll have more on the “new” voter aspect in another piece later today.

Turnout

Mr. Obama has made major strides in expanding the voter pool, especially among young people and African-Americans; the question is whether first-time voters, especially younger ones, will actually turn out. Consider this: An ABC News/Washington Post poll on Thursday found that first-time voters support Mr. Obama by 73 percent to 26 percent.

Mr. McCain’s campaign looks to history for evidence of how big a step it is for new voters to go from registering, which can take place at a doorstep, to actually voting. Still, by every indication here in Florida — where there were two-hour lines in the southern part of the state as early voting began this week — the Obama campaign may be delivering on the formidable get-out-the-voter operation it has promised.

Which is not to say they are not a bit worried.

“Complacency is a big concern of ours, and that’s why we’re going to campaign energetically from start to finish here,” David Axelrod, the chief strategist to Mr. Obama said in an interview. “We don’t want anybody to think that this thing is done — it’s not done. One of the things that can undo us is if people believe that.”

The issue with hedging the election on the “youth” turnout is that, as seen in 2004, they don’t always turnout to actually cast a vote. Whether this is true in 2008, we have yet to see.

So the Times has set forth several issues which are still unknowns in the next few days before the election. Historically McCain has a tough road, though it isn’t impossible.

On the other hand, Obama is in a very good position as long as he stays on the offense and keeps his supporters energized.

Sound off below.. are we going to see a landslide or are their still too many variables?

  • valleyofthesun

    I think Obama is going to win, but only by a tiny bit. Sort of a repeat of 2000, with a different side winning, and a different side whining. Not that I don’t like McCain. I’m voting for him, and I’m a registered Republican, but I’m not naive enough to think that any politician wouldn’t whine aabout the results when it’s that close.

    On a more personal note, we’re feeling the effects of the election and the economy problems here in Scottsdale, AZ. My husband and I both work for a promotional items company (tote bags, pens, t-shirts, etc.) and this past Monday, he had to layoff a girl who performs the same job I do. I was kept because my husband is the boss, and because I have about a year more seniority than she did, but it was a hard loss.

    And it wasn’t even because we’re slower with the business necessarily. It’s because Chase Bank VERY suddenly froze a 30K line of credit upon which the owner of the company depends to make payroll during our slow season, which is September through January.

    We are a very small business, (5 employees) and that credit line freeze could very well put us under, if we can’t make it up during the slow season. On top of laying off the other worker in my position, we have a girl who is off on injury leave because she fell off a ladder over the Labor Day weekend. And even though she was promised a position to come back to, the owner now says that if she were healed and ready to return, we couldn’t take her. So the company literally exists of the owner, myself and my husband. Down from 5.

    And it’s happening all over the valley of Phoenix. Small businesses are letting people go. My next door neighbor is a pool man and was just released without notice. I’m worried for an economy that can’t take more taxes on small business, on top of the current freezes and slow sales. So, I’m very worried indeed, but nonetheless convinced, that Obama is going to win.

    That’s my 2 cents….

  • Babs

    valleyofthesun, I’m sorry to hear that. I own a company like the one you work for, and business is definitely off here in the south. Our customers are 99.9% small businesses, the same as we are. Hold on tight if McCain loses – and I don’t believe he will.

    Somehow I still have enough faith in my fellow Americans that they will – at the last moment – go for the gold, not the gaffe.

  • valleyofthesun

    I really hope so. And not to degrade Obama’s candidacy, because honestly, I’m kinda ticked off at him for not being someone I feel like I can support. I’d really love to have a more diverse crowd in the White House, but I just can’t support him. Not with so many question marks and troubling ties. I’m gonna play it safe.

    Let’s cross our fingers and pray for the best.

    Were abouts in the South are you Babs?

  • Babs

    I’m in South Ga., about 50 miles where Fla., Ga., and Al. all connect to each other – the famous “dixie”. 😉

  • valleyofthesun

    Wow. Claim to fame I guess. I’m not too far away from 4 corners myself, but have never been there. It’s not much to look at from what I understand.

    Well, doing the work of two people leaves me little to no time for socializing.

    So have a good weekend. 🙂

  • Babs

    *LOL* On the contrary, valleyofthesun. We have beautiful beaches, and gorgeous plantations, rivers, and parks. Millions must disagree with you, as well. Retirees make up a lot of the population. Or were you referring to your “4 corners”? And where would that be?

  • swede

    “The McCain campaign is roughly in the position where Vice President Gore was running against President Bush one week before the election of 2000,” said Steve Schmidt, Mr. McCain’s chief strategist. “We have ground to make up, but we believe we can make it up.”

    um… does he realize that gore lost? (i certainly hope so) and – isn’t this kind of like saying “we believe we can come *close* to pulling off a win’…

    i’m not making any point – except for the fact that i laughed out loud when i read that. i understand what he is saying… but it is still funny way to say it (to me anyway)

  • Babs

    I agree, swede, that was a strange way to put it. They need to be comparing this race to Reagan’s in 1980. with all those Reagan democrats. I was cruising through the PUMA sites this morning, they’re still alive and kicking.

  • PeoplePower

    Babs – I think you’ll really be surprised when Obama wins (if he wins, I’m still not as confident as the polls show).

    I really don’t think your small business, or others, will be harmed by Obama’s policies. I think, counting all policies, small businesses will end up benefiting much more from Obama’s plans.

    With the economy flopping, shoring up the workforce will be one of the best ways to strengthen it again; and with more people working, more people will be buying.

    Although, I hope the economy being tough has taught people to live more within their means, which may mean a stall in consumer spending for a while as they catch up with their past excesses – myself included! 😉

  • Jim

    It’s such a shame that after 20 months of a public campaign there are voters like Babs and ValleyoftheSun who believe Obama’s ‘associations’ disqualify him from being considered as their president. This speaks to two things:

    1. The influence a dirty campaign can have on simple minds
    2. Public ignorance

    Without knowing you, I obviously cannot offer an informed opinion of YOUR character or beliefs, but to state there are ‘so many question marks and troubling ties’ shows how little you have paid attention to this race. I have no problem with anyone supporting McCain, but do it because you believe his positions will better this country, not because you believe the lies that have been spread about Obama as dangerous.

    Independent, critical thought is so necessary for America to remain a leader in the world and to prevent another George W Bush from ever taking office again…

  • Independent Woman

    Swede, I think what Steve Schmidt meant was that though Gore was behind in the polls at that time; he made up a lot of ground in the last two weeks. Gore may have lost, but only by a narrow margin and having won the popular vote.

    It is entirely conceivable that McCain could win this election with Obama taking the popular but not the electoral vote. Either way, taxes will go up, I’m sorry to say. It just isn’t possible for the government to fund wars in two countries, bail out fledging banks (there will be more to follow), help people who are at risk of losing their homes, etc. Where is all of this money going to come from? I remember when George Sr said “read my lips, no new taxes”. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

    People will have to start living within their means. We are going to be strapped for awhile; as we are in the beginning of a cycle of a profound economic recession. Rest assured- all recessions are followed by a period of recovery. So hang in there valleyofthesun. We are all rooting for you.

  • Babs

    Jim, you certainly don’t know me. I disagree with Obama’s policies. The rest might factor in if I agreed with some of them, but I don’t. If any single thing disqualifies him for me it’s his wet behind the ears inexperience. I’m sorry you can’t see THAT after 20 months.

  • unfair

    independent woman – as i said – i understood what he was *trying* to say – it is what he said that i thought was so funny.

    not only that – but i can only hope that this election does not turn into anything like the one in 2000. i don’t think i can handle anymore discussion over ‘hanging chads’… hehe

  • swede

    sorry – i posted on a different computer earlier… – swede = unfair. hope i didn’t cause too much confusion.

  • EricF

    well, i hope obama does win. it will be painful but i think this is the only way people will learn the lesson they so badly need.

  • valleyofthesun

    “Or were you referring to your “4 corners”? And where would that be?”

    Yes sweetie, I was talking about 4 Corners-LOL. I don’t think I’d go around insulting other people’s states unless I’d seen them. 😉

    4 Corners is where CO, UT, AZ and NM all meet. There’s this one tiny circle you can stand in and be “in all 3 states at the same time”. I’ve seen the pictures to prove it (groan).

  • valleyofthesun

    LOL…Can’t count. All FOUR states at once… excuse me.

  • valleyofthesun

    “It’s such a shame that after 20 months of a public campaign there are voters like Babs and ValleyoftheSun who believe Obama’s ‘associations’ disqualify him from being considered as their president. This speaks to two things:

    1. The influence a dirty campaign can have on simple minds
    2. Public ignorance”

    Yea um….this is why I said I never post here. In fact, that was the very first time I’d ever shared an opinion on politics anywhere at all online. And you had to go and be a dirtbag. Way to go, buddy. Real classy. (sigh)

    I’ll just take my simple mind and get out of your way. Might as well let those who don’t mind acting like arrogant SOB’s fight it out.

  • Well lets all remember what the exit polls back in 2000 said and the Dali-Bamas “Obamanable Snowjob”

  • Deb

    For the people who think Obama’s taxes won’t hurt small businesses where do they get most of their supplies? Probably from a big company. So who gets the additional tax cost even though it is put on the big business. They aren’t going to just back a pay it. They will raise their prices.

  • Bill Hedges

    Voter fraud has happened in Ohio. 13 Obama staffers, and group called VOTE FROM HOME. one of that group announced it. Said they did not understand the techical illegal aspect. Which is ,,intent to live in Ohio. Man recently got a law degree. Spokesman is a student at Sanford. Can be found on interent..Vote from home fraud.

  • Voter fraud happened in Ohio in 2004 Bill and Dubya won, I think it must be payback time…LOL

    At the end of the day both candidates are going to raise taxes and they’re lying if they say that they aren’t. The stark difference is, Obama has been open about who he’s going to tax, whereas McCain is pretending that he isn’t going to raise any taxes when he is.

  • EricF

    lol nzpudding. know what the sad part is? you prolly really believe what you posted. too funny.

  • Bill Hedges

    Pudding-your nuts. just happened and reported today. check the internet. As normal, yoy’re nuts

  • Bill Hedges

    Check D.C. Examiner. Has some posible Democrat spending ideas.

  • susan

    What do I think?What you people just don`t seem to get is the world is not interested in doing business with Mc Cain,As Obama says you will be on your own.I think you could all get special rates on group theapy.

  • EricF

    no. what people dont seem to understand is that Obama is playing the game of class warfare. even if he wins the election he will still lose the war. government cant control and redistribute PRIVATE wealth. its as simple as that. the wealthy will just stop participating and/or relocate. the Obama tax plan is so short sighted its laughable. people need to understand the long term implications instead of just looking at the short term “free money” aspect.

  • EricF, I am still waiting to hear about the root distrust/anger regarding socialism. Do you feel this economic model is antithetical to democracies or Christianities?

  • Bill Hedges

    Susan- You have some grasp of world opionion !

  • Bill Hedges

    Michael- You should read Conservative Gal newest article.Obaba, The radical new scialist It may not answer all your questions. But article has some great information. Written Oct. 24, 2008. Do not see it listed. Prehaps in re-write ?

  • EricF

    Michael, maybe one day sure. now is not the time and America is not the place. it will not work here. sure it works in some places but its artificial. its artificial because those systems are supported with money coming in from other countries, from exportation. those countries also dont have the high population levels to deal with.

    one day socialism, real socialism will be dominate but we are not there yet. nobody is there yet.

    so as you can hopefully now understand its not that im against socialism im just certain beyond any doubt that it cant work on a world scale and not in America at this time. it is doomed for failure.

    one day when we advance in technology to the point where that system is sustainable it will be. we (meaning the world) just arent there yet.

    i hope you understand.

  • dale

    EricF,

    I love your argument about Obama playing class warfare, and you may just be right. Unfortunatelty your understanding of economics, like like literally 99.9% of people, is far too limited to make the kind of conclusions you make. If Obama is participating in class warfare, I present for you a quote from Thomas Jefferson.

    “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and the corporations which grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”

    Does that maybe ring true to anybody about now? Just to clarify, the Federal Reserve is a private bank.

    That is a quote from Thomas Jefferson, their are many more, Benjamin Franklin was possibly the biggest critic of the system, indeed the prime cause (according to Franklin) for the American revolution was the fractional reserve banking system and the inevitable impact it had on the tax increase caused by government loans taken out by the British Government to fund international wars.

    Does that sound familiar to anybody? Indeed the current economic collapse that had been predicted for years was not because of Iraq, Sub-prime necessarily, but the inevitable result of the money in society being created by private banks that charge interest on all the money in circulation. The only way to pay the interest is to borrow more money, which is then charged more interest which results in inflation, and the cycle begins anew.

    Class warfare is not necessarily such a bad thing, however the process by which it occurs is not by tax policy, but monetary policy, and it’s not happening in the direction you think it is.

    This is not my opinion, this is the opinion of Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson and Abraham Lincoln who all fought diligently against the exact monetary system to which your country, my country and most of the world operates.

    Iraq did not use that policy, they do now.

    Oh and my old mate Bill Hedges, I have a link for you United Nations Security Council and the Iraq War,

    Here’s a little quote for you: On 16 September 2004 Kofi Annan, the Secretary General of the United Nations, speaking on the invasion [of Iraq], said, “I have indicated it was not in conformity with the UN Charter. From our point of view, from the charter point of view, it was illegal.”.

    Can we put that particular matter to bed now?

  • EricF

    Dale, i agree with you! amazing i know. that however is the bigger argument and its the system we are stuck with for now. i do agree with you but thats neither here nor there. in fact your argument is the very reason i will not vote this year, the one candidate that would at least attempt to right the ship was pretty much blacked out of this years race. i hold out hope for 2012.

    right now there are only two choices and McCain is by far the better choice.

    the only thing i would add is that you not assume to know my understanding of things.

  • dale

    “the only thing I would add is that you not assume to know my understanding of things. “

    Fair enough I suppose, and yes, of course, Ron Paul will never be president, but that too is probably a good thing anyway for other reasons.

    My conclusion then though, if we agree, is that there is nothong wrong with returning the taxes back to the Clinton years as Obama wants to do.

    1. If the system of fractional reserve system inherently shifts wealth upwards as the founding fathers understood.
    2. If we are nevertheless stuck with that system for now.
    3. What is wrong even with a process of wealth distribution downwards?

    Isn’t that the logical short-term antidote to a monetary structure that by design works against the common man? How is taxing the rich less the answer? It’s completely counter-intuitive to a proper understanding of the economic forces to think that.

  • EricF

    Dale, class warfare creates resentment and we are already seeing it. also higher taxes on those that create jobs does not allow for growth, lower taxes does.

    now listen closely. i would still have a problem with Obamas tax plan but i would alot less so if the money was going to something worth while like creating jobs and low income housing or job training programs, education. taking money from the job producers and giving it away to people, some that dont even pay federal income taxes is a joke and will do very little to stimulate the economy.

    the $250,000 line is a joke also if there is no lower line. wouldnt it make alot more sense to say…

    if you make over $250,000 you will get taxed more but that money will only go to anyone making under $100,000? im against the whole wealth redistribution idea but im just saying if you are going to do it doesnt my suggestion make more sense? you see, to me it makes absolutely no sense to take money from someone making $250,000 and giving it to someone making say $180,000.

    thoughts?

  • EricF

    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,444021,00.html

    Report Accuses Top Officials for Post-Elections Ethnic Violence in Kenya

    ————————————————————–

    finally the Odinga story is about to break. this is the man Obama campaigned for. could be the tip of the iceberg and downfall for Obama.

  • Stalin

    EricF:

    I think we both know that the $250K line is imaginary. That line was drawn because only 5% of voters make more than that amount. Once in office, having duped the people that make 100K to 249K, he will lower the boom on them too. It’s scary how naive people are.

  • JD

    I don’t understand the confusion by the republican’s on this. Obama said he is raising the tax rate back up to where it was under Reagan.

    This is not because he is out to punish the rich. It is because the US is in serious financial trouble and we are having to go down paths we would normally not do if we hadn’t miss handled trillions of dollars.

    But The US is 10 trillion (about to be) dollars in debt. Which means we are going to have to make HARD decisions and ones that some people aren’t going to like.

    I don’t see how returning the tax rate to how it was before in a bad Idea. It helps solve the problem and it isn’t like the 250K+ earners in the US aren’t going to be claiming deductions on thier income to lower it any way.

    I think the last time I looked 250K+ incomes only pay about 18% in income taxes because of thier deductions.

    Also, 250K+ is not 5% of the population. According to the the US Census Beurou (2005) , it is only 1.5% of the population.

    http://pubdb3.census.gov/macro/032007/hhinc/new06_000.htm

    This is not class warfare.

  • dale

    EricF,

    We could argue over semantics all day, but I think JD said it well enough just above. Really though, that’s the democratic position. Your semantic arguments over the exact nature of the tax relief is significantly less important than the fact that tax relief for the middle class is needed.

    Your idea that ‘Class Warfare’ is creating resentment is fed by media distortions, not facts. Media distortion is how the world ended up with such corrupt systems in the first damn place! Perpetuating the falsehoods from Fox News is the same as those that criticised Andrew Jaskson while he worked to crush the central banks for nearly 80 years. It’s intentional media distortion because it conflicts with the goals of the big business that runs the media.

    Those are the policies we should be fighting for, not against. 40% of the world’s wealth is owned by the top 1%, ponder the societal influence of that for a minute.

    Interest, taxes, inflation all exist to pay back this debt which has now doubled under the Republicans. A Republican is not the answer to a Republican problem. Especially not one who has had to change so many of his positions to appeal to the worst constituents within his own party. One that has given every indication of starting more war with Iran, and started to hint at Venezuela too.

    To finance his wars, rather than tax more, Bush simply borrowed more. War is the most expensive undertaking a government (read: people) can make while being extremely profitable for private enterprise such as oil companies and construction companies. To pay for war Bush made loans which means even more future tax because of the interest that will be charged on that money. The Bush tax cuts were a major reason why the debt is now double.

    There are only 2 ways for your government to get money to pay that back, Tax, which is interest free and loans, which have interest. Those loans still eventually must be paid back, with either more loans, which is stupid, or taxes. The Bush tax cuts came out of yours and your children’s pockets, AT INTEREST! You will pay them back through taxes, or at least try to, that is the only option.

    Consider McCain’s plan to buy mortgages from the banks at full value and re-finance them with government money for less. The difference between those 2 figures goes straight into the bank’s pockets. That increases the debt even further! That is by far the dumbest policy anybody could make bar war with Canada!!

    Is that the kind of financial policy to help America? No, it is most definitely not.

  • Bill Hedges

    JD–Here is the problem. Sub-prime got started because of ACORN and some Congressmen.. Lead by Dodd and Frank.From. Bill Clinton time till now all thesr bad loans have been bought by economic insttutionals. Finially the bubble burst and , bang, we have what we have. Good times started under Regan. He lowered Corpotate taes and good times flowed till sub-prime killed our economy. To recover, the tax must be lowered. To raise would be commiting same mistake made during the Depression.

  • dale

    Bill,

    Your presentation of this issue is completely superficial. The causes for sub-prime are extremely varied, as I’m sure you well know. You have chosen to isolate and exaggerate the causes that you see as being from a set of “left wing” policies.

    Despite your obvious bias, I have no doubt you know the further causes but either choose not to mention, or perhaps more disturbingly, refuse to acknowledge them al-la Orwellian double-think.

    The truth is Bill, the causes and effect of the financial crisis were both predictable, and intentional. They stem not from right-wing or left-wing policies, but from monetary policy allowed and solidified by Democratic president Woodrow Wilson. I specified the party not because it has any real bearing, but because I thought the idea of blaming a Democrat might appeal to you.

    To learn about how the world finances work, and how it’s all the fault of the Democrats, most specifically Woodrow Wilson, there’s video you should watch here. This is by far the best explanation of world monetary policy you will get outside a University, and it’s extremely important knowledge for anybody who wants to understand how the monetary and the federal reserve (which is not federal at all) were started and why.

    It’s very dense, and very long, as any intensive study of anything should be. It’s also quite clear to understand. Left-wing doesn’t matter, right-wing doesn’t matter, all that matters is monetary policy and war policy, and they are so much more intrinsicly related than anybody has any idea about.

    The fundamental fraud as I see it is this: In order to issue money, the government issues federal bonds which it swaps with the bank for money, which it then pays interest on.

    Why pay interest on the money from the bonds when you can simply issue money, with no interest? Income tax was created to pay this interest, that’s why it keeps rising. You can’t lower taxes unless you lower the debt, which you can only do through again further taxation, or further loans. This is the cause of both inflation and income taxes.

    The true cause of the economic crisis is not ACORN or Fannie Mae, it’s inherent in the system. It’s very important that people start to understand this, just as the founding fathers like Jefferson, Lincoln and Jackson did. Nothing is more important to the future of the world than the understanding of monetary policy and why it causes financial collapses such as the one we are all now experiencing.

  • Bill Hedges

    dale-My answer is short and simplistic. What caused our problem is what I stated. That is what stopped the longest BULL MARKET. Obvious other fctors are involved. Maarket don’t go straight up all the time. All countries go through recessions and worse.Our system is not broke.

  • JD

    Bill – “Good times started under Regan”

    Than you should like what Obama is doing. He is putting back the tax rates that were under Reagan. If it was good enough for Reagan then it should be good enough for you.

    Obama is returning Taxes to where they use to be. This should be plain and simple to understand.

  • Bill Hedges

    dale- Please tell me the ideal country that exist today from a economic stand point. Leaving politics out…I would appreciate hearing about that Country.

  • susan

    Japan and Canada! We both endorse Obama for president also1

  • New Zealand endorses Obama for President 😉

  • susan

    Thanks New Zealand!