As the polling turns.. Obama back on top by a hair

The third part in my now-weekly series on Saturday examining the polls, it appears as though the pendulum has swung back toward Obama giving him a slight edge in the race again, at least in the national polls. As I noted last week, McCain had a slight edge after some positive numbers followed the Republican convention.

However, as the race is very tight and very fluid, the polls have now headed back to Obama’s direction:

The chart showing the latest polls is still very close with the latest Gallup poll handing Obama 6 point advantage. Last week we were looking at McCain leading on average 47.4% to Obama’s 45.1%. This week, the numbers have nearly reversed with Obama leading at 47.4% and McCain trailing slightly at 45.3%. Within the margin of error but clearly Obama has made up a little ground lost following the convention.

The real meat and potatoes of this discussion is, as always, the national delegate map. The map has changed a little since last week which is explained below.

Here is the current RCP average electoral as of this moment:

Here is what has changed:

Report on Minnesota’s status from CBS News:

So why the national shift back toward Obama? I think some of it has to do with McCain failing to properly capitalize on his lead following the convention. Choosing Gov. Sarah Palin made a major splash in the political sea and gave him much-needed positive coverage. However, instead of taking that coverage and building on a positive image, McCain’s campaign seems to have faltered with items like the “lipstick on a pig” ad in which his campaign accused Obama of specifically calling Gov. Palin a pig. Most people, including myself, don’t seem to think Obama intentionally meant to call her a pig, though he could have chosen better words.

I’m thinking the economic news and rhetoric will flush out this week and we’ll see if either candidate’s message has resonated with voters.

  • I don’t think the shift is for Obama, but more against McCain or more specifically Palin.

    The euphoria surrounding Palin when she was first announced was totally amazing, she was more the celebrity than what Obama has been portrayed as. But now people have come to their senses a little, perhaps they’re not overly convinced she’d make a great VP.

    The BS surrounding the ‘lipstick on a pig’ comment was so overblown it was ridiculous and I think that went against McCain. Also the Government bailing out corporations with $Billions of taxpayers money hasn’t helped either.

    I’m waiting till the debates, then we’ll have a clearer picture on who’s really leading.

  • Grady08

    long time havent checked out here.i’m glad that obama took back to lead again. i hope he can win in the last.
    repulitics had nothing but always cried a lot of things that dont matter the country at all.they have a pretty vp,they can find some obama’s oral mistakes which are all nothing good about the country.
    i hope that american people can realize this point and turn to obama soon

  • Christopher Schwinger

    Isn’t it something like 60% that don’t like McCain OR Obama? Check out baldwin08.com 🙂 .

  • JD

    NZpudding – “I’m waiting till the debates, then we’ll have a clearer picture on who’s really leading. ”

    You and me both. I am really curious to see how the Obama\McCain debate will go. I think the Biden\Palin is going to be like watching the first round of American Idol…everyone will be hoping something pulls Palin off the stage because we are all embarrassed for her. Maybe Palin will be the new William Hung.

  • Babs

    Interestingly enough, I caught a Lifetime poll out this morning that shows a shift among women. That poll – when asked which candidate understands women better – shifted from July in which Obama won 58% to a paltry percentage for McCain, to now McCain 47%, Obama 44%. This brought up an interview from Quin. pollster who said according to polling statistics that the swing vote sector and deciding votes in this election will be among WHITE WOMEN. Hmmm, anybody worried about that? 😉

  • JD

    Babs – “according to polling statistics that the swing vote sector and deciding votes in this election will be among WHITE WOMEN. Hmmm, anybody worried about that?”

    Son Of a Bit%#… who gave women the right to vote?

    Probably some demacrat who thought that equal rights was a good thing. I wish it had been a republican in office then and we wouldn’t have this problem.

  • Babs

    *LOL* I knew you’d be the first to be worried, JD. 😉