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One poll has shown a reaction by voters to the “bitterness” comments while others still show Obama’s poll numbers holding steady. A new American Research Group poll is showing the 20 point advantage and is currently alone in showing such a staunch lead for Clinton.
The numbers breakdown from ARG:
As shown, about a week ago they had the two candidates tied so clearly there’s been some change.
RealClearPolitics still has Hillary up by 7 points on average. However, they don’t have many recent polls figured in so this will be developing over the next few days as new Pennsylvania polls are released.
Here’s a report on it from USAToday:
A survey of Pennsylvania Democrats that was done in part after the news broke about Sen. Barack Obama’s controversial comment that some small-town folks are “bitter” and cling to religion and guns in difficult times, shows him now trailing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Keystone State by 20 percentage points.
American Research Group says this morning that its latest poll shows Clinton ahead 57%-37%. The survey of 600 “likely” Democratic primary voters was begun Friday and completed on Sunday. The news about Obama’s “bitter” comments broke late Friday afternoon.
In ARG’s previous Pennsylvania survey, done a week earlier, Clinton and Obama were tied at 45%. That tie, though, was an “outlier.” Most Pennsylvania polls have given Clinton at least a 5 percentage point lead.
ARG’s new survey has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
As we always say: Polls are snapshots of current public opinion, not forecasts of what will happen on any Election Day that’s still a ways off. Pennsylvania’s primary is getting closer, though. It’s one week from tomorrow.
The national lead for Obama has remained steady, he still has wider national appeal among Democrats over Hillary Clinton.
Update
New polls show Obama’s national lead is the strongest it’s ever been. Here’s the latest numbers from Gallup:
Then there’s this story from the LA Times concerning Hillary’s lead in Pennsylvania and Indiana:
WASHINGTON — With three crucial Democratic primaries looming, Hillary Rodham Clinton may not be headed toward the blockbuster victories she needs to jump-start her presidential bid — even in Pennsylvania, the state that was supposed to be her ace in the hole, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.
The survey found the New York senator leading Barack Obama by just 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which votes next Tuesday. Such a margin would not give her much of a boost in the battle for the party’s nomination.
What is more, the poll found Clinton trails Obama by 5 points in Indiana, another Rust Belt state that should play to her strengths among blue-collar voters.
In North Carolina, an Obama stronghold, he is running 13 points ahead.
The race remains volatile, however, because many likely voters in the Democratic primaries are still undecided — 12% in Pennsylvania, 19% in Indiana and 17% in North Carolina.
The races remain tight and very fluid as it comes nearer to the actual voting date in Pennsylvania of April 22nd. The debate tomorrow should also toss more variables into the mix depending on how each candidate does.
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Will Obama give his campaign cash to Hillary when he loses?
Even if she wins Pennsylvania by 20 points she can’t win the nomination because she’s too far behind in the pledged delegates so ultimately her winning big in Pennsylvania will only prolong this further thus fracturing the democratic party when Obama inevitable becomes the nominee.
If Obama is the nominee I can tell you not a lot of people is going to vote for him comes November. Also Jeff, Obama won’t have enough pledge delegates to become the nominee either. It was decided a long time ago that Super delegates will determine the nominee.
If she wins big in PA she will try to make a case to the delegates that Obama can’t carry a red/toss up state and that she should be the nom.
Don’t put too much stock in this poll.
First, it’s from ARG, consistently one of the least reliable pollsters throughout the primary season. They frequently fluctuate wildly about the mean.
Second, although right now it’s the most recent poll, it’s a strong statistical outlier from the other polls in the past few days.
Wait until Quinnipac, a much stronger pollster, comes out with their PA numbers tomorrow. It will likely show ARG’s unreliability.
*sigh* I bet if Big Bird and Ernie from Seseme Street were runni it would be the same polling results. GET INFORMED and don’t let the media dictate how you think.
Goodness…
I agree with you this time, Michelle. I don’t think anyone should give more than a passing glance to any poll. If you dig a little, you’ll see most of the surveys are slanted going in by demographics and party. The overall average from RCP is a closer tool than any, because it combines and averages the smaller lopsided polls.
I just want Hillary win big so I can watch this debacle for a few months longer. It’s quite entertaining.
As predicted, Quinnipac, the far more reliable polling service, came out with their numbers for PA today:
Clinton: 50%
Obama 44%
N surveyed: 2103 (3.5 times more than the ARG poll)
In other words, no change at all from their poll last week. Seems that the manufactured controversy over “bitter-ness” just doesn’t have legs.
Actually, Mike, I notice there are a few changes in the subsections of the poll. Interesting:
“In this latest survey of 2,103 likely Democratic primary voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University, 26 percent of Clinton supporters would switch to Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican, in November if Obama were the Democratic nominee. Nineteen percent of Obama backers would switch to McCain if Clinton were the Democratic nominee. A look at other groups shows:
White voters for Clinton 57 – 37 percent, compared to 56 – 38 percent last week;
Black voters back Obama 86 – 8 percent, compared to 75 – 17 percent;
Women back Clinton 54 – 40 percent, unchanged from 54 – 41 percent last week;
Men are for Obama 51 – 43 percent, compared to a 48 – 44 percent tie last week;
Reagan Democrats back Clinton 55 – 40 percent;
Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 – 39, while older voters back Clinton 55 – 40 percent.”
So while the overall outcome was about the same, there seemed to be a bit of shifting internally, didn’t there? Seems that the biggest hikes in support went to Obama since last week, with a 3% increase in men voters, and an 11% increase in black voters. What does that say about last weeks poll if the outcome this week is still the same?
Hillary has a new commercial out about the “bitterness” remark, we’ll see if it works as well as the 3AM commercial.
Reagan Democrats?? Forgive my ignorance: who are the Reagan democrats? People who voted for Reagan then turned liberal?
Babs,
While Quinnipac will at least give you their internals (many polls won’t even do that), what they don’t make clear is their definition of a “likely voter”…in fact, almost no pollster will.
This is where the “magic” comes in to the equation, and how most polls go very, very off-course. They can tell you that black voters will break for Obama 86% of the time, but they must make certain demographic assumptions about how many black voters will actually show up at the voting booth.
It’s entirely possible that even though the internals may be trending towards Obama, they’re definition of a likely voter has changed such that it’s a zero-sum game.
Just wondering…..
“Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 – 39, while older voters back Clinton 55 – 40 percent.â€
How many of the younger voters, who lean towards Obama increasingly the younger you go, do you suppose have land-line phones? Would this discrepancy in these polls, that are predicated on voters with land-lines, have anything to do with why HRC didn’t win in Texas, in spite of her strong poll #’s going in? Or why her win in Ohio (by 10 pts?) wasn’t nearly as “big” as the #’s suggested it would be, or the pudits then tried to spin it? How many people do you know under the age of 30 that have a land-line phone?
Conversely. How many of the older voters in this poll, do have a land-line, and are thereby polled? All of them? Or just 97% of them?
This seems like it would make a difference, and is completely ignored.
Good point, Nate! (Except Hillary did win Texas in the popular vote) Most college students I know have nothing save a cell phone, which I’ve heard has helped in their campaigning for Obama because of text messaging features. But as to the polls, I agree with you that there could be a curve set by this.
Also, when these polls are surveying Obama vs. McCain, and Clinton vs. McCain there is no way that McCain will ever win because up to 2/3 of the people polled are democrats (by their reports). That’s the main reason I discount most of them.
By the way, someone more into labels than I am should answer Tina’s question. Tina, I thought a Reagan Democrat was just a democrat that voted for Reagan, but someone else here might be able to explain it to you correctly. I don’t know that I’m correct at all.
Mike, good points. I think we all agree that polls are to be taken with a very large grain of salt. By the way, that poll ended the 13th, so it’s really not that indicative of any fallout from the “bitter” debacle.
Nate,
Most pollsters are painfully aware that they can’t reach people with cell-phones…again, this is part of the “magic”, where they make some assumptions about how people with cell-phones would vote (based on the demographics of cell-phone ownership), and how many would actually make it to the polls. There are a lot of biases to deal with here: cell-phones are generally owned by younger folks, who generally lean Obama, but generally have a weaker showing at the polls than the older set.
However, the one upside is that Gallup has actually started cell-phone polling this year:
http://www.pollster.com/b.....ntervi.php
Babs,
Again, the 2/3 thing is based on likely voters. Back when the Republican primary was still contested, Democrats were showing up at the polls 2-to-1 over Republicans (in some states even more). Whether this trend carries through to the GE, well, we’ll see.
By the way, latest poll out in PA today, PPP:
http://www.publicpolicypo.....041608.pdf
Obama: 45%
Clinton: 42%
I’m an Obama supporter, however, I was reassured based on tonight’s debate that if Sen. Clinton is the nominee I can support her.
HILLARY I WINNING THE POLLS IN PA AND AFTER THE DEBATE TONIGHT SHE EVEN GROW STRONGER ! OBAMA PAUSES AND STUTTERS WAY TO MUCH AND TRYS SO HARD TO AVOID ANY DIRECT ANSWERS
Boycott Chris Matthews and Dobermann
http://youtube.com/watch?v=kcdnlNZg2iM