Final poll analysis heading into March 4th, “Super Tuesday II”

The time is finally upon us again, a major primary day coming up tomorrow which could decide the fate of both parties in choosing a nominee.

It looks like a definite on the Republican side of the tracks where John McCain is currently standing pretty tall in both Texas and Ohio, not looking like Huckabee is going to put up much of a fight. He leads Ohio very handily and Texas by a very sizable margin. It will not really be a contest.

However, on the Democratic side, the race may just soon begin unless either Obama or Clinton come off with staunch victories on Tuesday, March 4th.

Take a look at the following charts as I believe they tell the tale of what’s happening for the Democratic race in Ohio and Texas.

First, the Texas chart:

Dems Obama Clinton Texas Polls

Purple is Clinton, green is Obama and you can see the trend working in Obama’s favor. As of now, he has a strong shot at winning Texas if the fates continue to align.

Now, take a look at Ohio where the trend is similar but not quite in Obama’s favor yet:

Dems Ohio Clinton Obama Chart

Once again, the trend is heading toward Obama but Clinton has maintained the lead. I heard a theory earlier as to why this is and I think it holds true. In Ohio, a state which has been hit by an economic downturn and loss of manufacturing jobs, people are less inclined to “give hope a chance” in the form of Obama. Instead, they are holding their cards and hedging more on Hillary Clinton whom they see as a more “steady” candidate instead of some kind of experiment.

If I had to wager, which I don’t, but I will, I’d say Obama will take Texas and lose Ohio. However, they will both be close which will essentially split the delegates, that’s bad news for Clinton, better for Obama since he’s leading by 100 or so now.

Furthermore, I’ll wager that John McCain will win the 1,191 delegates on the GOP side and officially become the nominee. Huckabee will drop out Tuesday evening or the next day.

I’ll have more coverage and analysis later today.


This post will have full results:

Official 2008 Ohio, Texas, Vermont, & Rhode Island Results