Final poll analysis heading into March 4th, “Super Tuesday II”

The time is finally upon us again, a major primary day coming up tomorrow which could decide the fate of both parties in choosing a nominee.

It looks like a definite on the Republican side of the tracks where John McCain is currently standing pretty tall in both Texas and Ohio, not looking like Huckabee is going to put up much of a fight. He leads Ohio very handily and Texas by a very sizable margin. It will not really be a contest.

However, on the Democratic side, the race may just soon begin unless either Obama or Clinton come off with staunch victories on Tuesday, March 4th.

Take a look at the following charts as I believe they tell the tale of what’s happening for the Democratic race in Ohio and Texas.

First, the Texas chart:

Dems Obama Clinton Texas Polls

Purple is Clinton, green is Obama and you can see the trend working in Obama’s favor. As of now, he has a strong shot at winning Texas if the fates continue to align.

Now, take a look at Ohio where the trend is similar but not quite in Obama’s favor yet:

Dems Ohio Clinton Obama Chart

Once again, the trend is heading toward Obama but Clinton has maintained the lead. I heard a theory earlier as to why this is and I think it holds true. In Ohio, a state which has been hit by an economic downturn and loss of manufacturing jobs, people are less inclined to “give hope a chance” in the form of Obama. Instead, they are holding their cards and hedging more on Hillary Clinton whom they see as a more “steady” candidate instead of some kind of experiment.

If I had to wager, which I don’t, but I will, I’d say Obama will take Texas and lose Ohio. However, they will both be close which will essentially split the delegates, that’s bad news for Clinton, better for Obama since he’s leading by 100 or so now.

Furthermore, I’ll wager that John McCain will win the 1,191 delegates on the GOP side and officially become the nominee. Huckabee will drop out Tuesday evening or the next day.

I’ll have more coverage and analysis later today.

Update:

This post will have full results:

Official 2008 Ohio, Texas, Vermont, & Rhode Island Results

  • Babs

    I’m going to predict a surprise in Texas, and it’s only a gut feeling. I think Clinton will do better in Texas than the polls are showing, because I have a feeling a lot of Clinton supporters are not participating in these polls. Just my .02 cents worth.

    Let me tell you the numbers I’d like to see posted. Let’s take all of the previous primaries and post the vote counts. Example, Obama won Alaska. Wow, he got what, 302 votes? A total number of around 600 or 700 voters state wide voted democrat, and how many voted republican? I’d like to see how many other states that either democrat won (Obama or Clinton) with total votes, as opposed to how many republicans and indenpents voted in that same state and how the democrats stacked up to them. I think that would be a more accurate picture of how this years election is going more than any poll, don’t you?

  • Babs

    Ok, I’m going to answer my own post here. *L* According to the numbers from all primaries so far (pulled from cnn.com, they’re all the same results no matter what site you use), here’s the total number of votes for both Clinton and Obama (yes, I sat with my calculator and added them all myself, you can check my addition):

    Obama – 10,697,535
    Clinton – 10,457,236
    Difference – 240,299

    Now before anyone says see! see! Obama wins! look closely at these numbers. Of ALL the primaries combined, only 240, 299 votes separate them. One state’s primary can put Clinton on top.

    And the moral of the story is no matter the individual candidates spin it, they are still neck and neck going into tomorrow’s primaries.

  • Dave

    You are right, Babs, but if all votes are equal, then shouldn’t the number of states tip the balance? This is the whole reason for the US Senate and Congress both being important. One is based on each state having equal representation, and the other is based on the size and population of the states.

    If both Ohio and Texas are a close split for EITHER candidate, then how well the candidates do in the remaining primaries will become very important. With the current trends, if the two candidates come out very close to each other in pledged delegates after March 4th, Obama will have an advantage going to the national convention because he has been doing better in smaller states.

    Hillary NEEDS at least a 65 percent in both Ohio and Texas to get the needed delegates to pull ahead of Obama.

  • Babs

    I agree with you completely, Dave. The point of running those numbers were more geared toward the ever going debates of “people” wanting change with Obama, or the “people” wanting whatever it is they want in Clinton. In reality, these primaries have very little to do with what the “people” want, only getting the delegate and super delegate wins and securing the partie’s nomination. But what you hear most, especially in posts on this site and others is that the “people” are ready for a change, and the “people” want Obama – or Hillary. The point was in reality the “people” – irregardless of gender, age or race – pretty much think the same about both of them, it appears to me. =)

  • Michael

    Babs, you are using numbers that include Michigan and Florida– which first and foremost are excluded from the Democratic Primary, and second had an unfair advantage to hillary clinton during their polls (Michigan only had Hillary Clinton and Gravel on the ballot– so 39% voted undecided– which cannot go toward Obama at the moment. and Hillary Clinton went to Florida prior to the primary, something both candidates vowed against).

    If you exclude these two states, Obama has a lead of close to a million people. Furthermore, the argument his campaign has issued is that he is winning the votes of people who are “swing” voters, whereas the votes Hillary is getting is largely the base — which presumably would vote Democratic either way.

  • nzpudding

    Clinton needs to win and win big in both Texas and Ohio, if she only just squeezes past Obama then that’s still a win for him as it was only a couple of weeks ago where Hillary had a huge lead.

  • Jay Em

    If Huckabee ends his bid for the Presidency, I will then no longer be following this circus as there will be no one else for me to support.
    My Support will only be for Fairtax and that will be the only place my money will go.
    So maybe I’ll see you again in 4 years.
    But with any luck, I’ll be talking to you on Wednesday.

  • Isi agboaye

    I appreciate seeing Obama – a minority on the ticket – however, I am wondering why America cannot give Hillary a chance. All the talk about democracy for the whole world sounds cheap and unrealistic if America cannot at least give a woman the chance to rule that great nation for the first time. At the end of the day, we would be asking if America has anything to teach the rest of the world – especially nations that have successfully been ruled by women. I pray Hillary wins – I just pray she wins.