Edwards continues to surge…

DES MOINES, Iowa — John Edwards appears to have risen to a new high point in Iowa, marking an upward trend over the past two weeks that places him in a statistical tie with Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

A new Strategic Vision poll released Friday finds that the former North Carolina senator has the support of 28 percent of likely Democratic cacucus-goers, his best standing in Iowa over the past six months. Edwards now trails Clinton by only one point and Obama by two points, well within the poll’s margin of error of 4.5 percent.

Today’s survey confirms a string of polls in the past two weeks. All demonstrate a steady ascension by Edwards, while Clinton and Obama appear to have stabilized.

The Democratic race in Iowa, more than any time this year, is now absent a clear front-runner.

I would have to say that even if Edwards comes in third, but a strong third in Iowa that should be a victory for his campaign. With (in comparison) very little press coming his way in the past 6 months and most of it going to Clinton and Obama and their ongoing feuds, him moving this close to the top is quite an accomplishment. He has raised far fewer funds than Clinton and Obama and seems to have accomplished much more with much less. The same can be seen on the Republican side, Huckabee has not been a big money guy so far, but still has the small edge going into Thursday.

Will the polls actually reflect what these polls are reflecting or will guys like Paul and Edwards surprise everyone and move up to the front of the pack? It certainly appears to be anyone’s game, and this will be one of the most interesting primary seasons ever.


P.S. Ron and Tom will be back on January 3rd to lay out our predictions, and then again on January 4th to discuss how it all panned out.

  • aa

    there is anew poll suggesting that clintons leads by 7% and that romney leads huckabee by 9 % in iowa ;)) (please note that this was before huckabees pakistan “mishap”)

    i think after 3.1.2008 we can trash these polls.

  • Nick

    John Edwards will take Iowa. It’ll be close, but I have no doubt he’ll take the final lead

  • I will admit, Edwards appears to be surging in Iowa but with such a small percentage (like 5 or 6%) of Iowa voters participating in the caucuses, it’s difficult to judge from the polls. I still find it very hard to believe Edwards will beat Obama or Clinton. I guess I would concede it’s possible he pulls second place but that would assume Obama or Clinton takes 3rd place which I don’t see happening.

    I’ve been trying to take the polls more generally than relying on them as concrete snapshots of the electorate. It will come down to the wire on both sides but that’s what makes it fun.

  • Harry

    Edwards is going to win without doubt. Sincerity goes a long way.