Annual Pre-Christmas Assessments For 2007

Last year, on December 22nd, I did a “Pre-Christmas Assessment” of what the race was at that time. Looking back 1 year ago now, it’s quite funny. You can read my 2006 Pre-Christmas assessment here.

Clearly last year I underestimated Obama’s impact since he’s now got a real chance of pulling some upsets.

So, here is my 2007 Pre-Christmas Assessment, which has much more meaning this year since the race is actually happening.

Democrats

Hillary Clinton – She’s busy fighting off the Obama campaign and in I’m guessing bulking up yet again for serious attack mode if Obama should take Iowa. At this point, 50/50 chance she wins Iowa which, in my opinion, might sway New Hampshire voters.

Barack Obama – Busy fighting the Hillary machine and has been winning on some points with the help of his Oprah machine. Again, 50/50 chance he takes Iowa as well. Taking Iowa is his only chance to take New Hampshire in my opinion. If he loses Iowa, it’s game over for the Obama camp. January 3rd will tell us quite a bit.

John Edwards – Edwards is just counting down the time to the announcement that he’s withdrawing from the race. He’s not going to win Iowa or anywhere else in my opinion. He’s just the ultra-liberal Democratic candidate still holding on because he attracts enough of the socialist base.

Biden, Richardson, Kucinich, and Gravel are bookends, let’s be realistic. Although I do think Richardson has VP potential for Hillary should she win the nomination.

Republicans

Rudy Giuliani – At this point, thinks are looking as rosy for Rudy as they were last year at this time. Of course, the race hadn’t started but he was very popular at that point. His strategy is being tested and I’m not so sure it’s going to hold up with the momentum of Romney or Huckabee winning some early contests.

Mitt Romney – Romney is still looking good in my opinion. Despite the gains by Huckabee, Romney still holds New Hampshire and has a good shot in other early contests. If Romney wins Iowa, he will probably get a good bounce toward New Hampshire, Michigan, and South Carolina. I don’t know if that will catapult him all the way to the nomination. It may if Giuliani falters or his super Tuesday strategy fails.

Mike Huckabee – I would have said a nowhere longshot last year. However, he’s got a real shot to win Iowa. I’m not so sure if that will catapult him to more victories. Huckabee’s support is still very fluid as new good and bad stories seem to be coming out on a daily basis. Some Republicans may be a little weary of him given some of his more liberal record. If he wins Iowa, he will have a chance to go further. However, I’m not so sure he will.

John McCain – Only really has a chance in New Hampshire. If he loses there, he’s out in my opinion. His time is past and I don’t think he’s going to take the granite state.

Fred Thompson – The Thompson campaign better be praying for a Christmas miracle because he’s about down and out. Apparently his campaign is near broke and his poll numbers aren’t much better. If the GOP race wasn’t so tremendously fluid and close, I would basically count him out.

Ron Paul is great for web traffic but he’s not winning anything despite his supporters telling me otherwise on an almost daily basis. Neither is Hunter or Keyes.

There you have it. My Pre-Christmas Assessment for 2007. So what do you think?

  • J. Howe

    Interesting how everybody thinks it is ok to leave Ron Paul in the dust. I think he will surprise you. He is the only candidate who wants to take the troops out or Iraq (and Korea) immediately, and the only candidate who seems to genuinely care about civil rights and liberties. He wants to realize the nation that our founding fathers envisioned…this means minimal government and optimal freedom, finally enabling us to be autonomous individuals.

  • I’m sure that everything you said there is true, Paul does hold those positions. Still, nothing else points to him winning any of the contests. I know, I know, the polls don’t represent everyone and he’s going to come out of nowhere and sweep Iowa, New Hampshire, and everywhere else. I’d love to be surprised, it would make for great news but I just don’t think it’s gonna happen.

  • Kevin

    Hugh Hewitt said that libertarian candidates often get 5% of the vote, and that is what Ron Paul is getting.

    I think it will be Rudy / Hillary.

  • Jennifer

    I find it surprising that other Ron Paul supporters do not mention the fact that his campaign is gaining a lot of momentum with the large amounts of campaign cash rolling in. The average contribution was around $77, i think, which could translate into A LOT of votes. Also, Ron Paul supporters are more collectively charged than any other group of supporters. This, of course, is an opinion, but then again, I have witnessed this first hand. You do not see Rudy or Hillary supporters joining other Rudy or Hillary supporters on the corner of the street, handing out literature, holding up signs, holding rallies, or writing hand written letters to the people of Iowa and New Hampshire.

    I think its safe to say that Ron Paul WILL surprise many…aside from those who already have his back and have experienced his popularity firsthand.

    I know you’re sick of the ‘media card’, but I think its important to point out that a)the media has been bought and sold by and to large corporations that have monetary goals to their stock holders, b) therefore, the media’s efforts are skewed by corporate interests, thus making our press no longer free, and c) by telling the people who is ‘winning’ in the polls, the media effectively tells the people who to vote for by showing them who’s already ‘winning’. It is a game that has been working for years…until now.

    If you consider that many telephone polls (all of which are landlines, and let’s get real: what 18-25 year old, many of whom are behind Ron Paul, still have a landline telephone??) don’t even include Ron Paul’s name, and the fact that Fox has excluded Ron Paul from the Jan 6th debate, it seems as though there might be somewhat of a media blackout on Ron Paul. Why?
    The answer to that is clear: he has never bowed down to corporate interests and can not continube forced to participate in the puppetshow government we are witnessing today.